Posted on 12/02/2006 9:05:42 PM PST by DeaconBenjamin2
Florida and Chris Leak beat Arkansas 38-28 to win the SEC Championship. According to the CFN Formula, which ranks the teams based on who had the best seasons, the Gators deserve to play for the national title. Not only isn't Michigan No. 2 in the CFN Formula, it's not third, or even fourth.
Who should play Ohio State for the national title? Michigan will most likely end up playing Ohio State in a rematch, but does it deserve it? According to the CFN Formula, which ranks teams based on what actually happened on the field and takes all subjectivity out of it, here are the rankings of four teams currently in the debate for the number two spot. This is NOT a ranking of which teams are the best or most talented. This is a formula to find out which teams had the best seasons based on who they played, who they beat, and who they lost to. We'll put out the entire 119-team ranking next week.
Out of Michigan, Florida, Louisville and Boise State ...
The Formula's Components:
1. Wins. - If you win, everything else falls into place. Each win counts as 1.
2. Quality Wins - The number of wins over teams that finished with a winning record. Each win counts as 1.
3. Elite Wins - The number of wins over teams that finished with two losses or fewer. Each win counts as 1 with a road win over an Elite team getting an extra 0.5. Also counting as 1 is a road win over a team that finished with three losses or fewer (but the extra 0.5 isn't added).
4. Bad Loss - The number of losses to teams that finished with three wins or fewer or a loss to a DI-AA team. Each loss counts as minus-1. Take away an additional 0.5 for a Bad Loss at home.
5. Bad Win - The number of wins to teams that finished with three wins or fewer, or a win over a D-IAA team. Each win counts as minus 0.25.
6. Elite Loss - The number of losses to teams that finished with two losses or fewer. Each loss counts as 0.25.
7. Point Differential - Points for minus points against divided by 100.
8. Winning Percentage - To take losses into account, winning percentage is in the mix.
1. Florida CFN Score: 24.92
Record: 12-1, Quality Wins: 7, Elite Wins 3, Bad Loss 0, Bad Win 1, Elite Loss 1, Point Difference 2, Winning % 0.92
2. Louisville CFN Score: 21.60
Record: 11-1, Quality Wins: 6, Elite Wins 1, Bad Loss 0, Bad Win 1, Elite Loss 1, Point Difference 2.68, Winning % 0.92
3. Boise State CFN Score: 21.11
Record: 12-0, Quality Wins: 5, Elite Wins 1, Bad Loss 0, Bad Win 3, Elite Loss 0, Point Difference 2.86, Winning % 1.00
4. Michigan CFN Score: 20.54
Record: 11-1, Quality Wins: 4, Elite Wins 2.5, Bad Loss 0, Bad Win 0, Elite Loss 1, Point Difference 1.87, Winning % 0.92
Case for Michigan
1. Michigan is generally acknowledged by almost everyone as the nation's second best team. Even when USC was ranked number two, that was more of a function of the voters preventing a rematch than it was a confirmation of the Trojans.
2. The first game in Columbus didn't settle the issue in the minds of many. If you're a believer that home field advantage means three points, then Michigan and Ohio State are dead even. Now, many want to see what would happen on a neutral field.
3. Going into this last weekend, Michigan played the nation's third toughest schedule behind Cincinnati and one other team which will go nameless for a moment.
4. It's not like Florida showed great pizzazz getting to 12-1. There's a reason no one's been pushing the Gators for the national title; it has been a bit zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz (Percy Harvin excluded). While style points shouldn't matter, Florida got sacked by Auburn in a 27-17 loss; the offense was shut down in the second half (but the defense was impressive). Michigan's one loss, of course, was as forgivable as it gets.
5. The offense should be every bit as good in a rematch with Ohio Stat, if not better. Mario Manningham was just getting back in the swing of things. One of the nation's best receivers, Michigan's offense is far more potent when he's 100% and rolling. Those 39 points and close to 400 yards of total offense weren't a fluke.
Case for Florida
1. Schedule, schedule, schedule. Going into the final weekend of the season, the Gators played the nation's toughest schedule, and it wasn't even close. The cumulative opposition winning percentage was 0.643. Number two Cincinnati was 0.622. That might not seem like much, but it is.
2. The SEC deserves a break. Auburn got hosed in 2003 when USC and Oklahoma squared off for the national title. If you believe the SEC is the nation's toughest conference, then its champion should go in.
3. Michigan didn't win it's own conference title. If you're the number two in your league, how is it possible, theoretically or practically, that you should be named the best team in the country?
4. Michigan beat an overrated Notre Dame team that had one win over a team with a pulse (Georgia Tech) and got by Wisconsin before the Badger offense, primarily the receivers, began to jell. Ohio State and Michigan basically fattened up their records against a horrible Big Ten while Florida ended up beating nine bowl teams and lost to one.
5. The defense is the real deal. The secondary might be a bit suspect, but the front seven, despite injuries, is rock-solid. Throw in a veteran quarterback like Chris Leak, and a head coach in Urban Meyer who doesn't lose when he gets more than two weeks to prepare, and you have a team more than good enough to not just challenge the Buckeyes, but beat them. Michigan had its chance, and lost.
Case for ... Boise State?!
1. 12-0. There are two teams in America without a loss. Boise State does play in Division-I, doesn't it? If there's no playoff and no chance to actually prove it on the field, you do have to consider all 119 teams for the title. It's time to pay more than lip-service when it comes to giving the "little guy" a shot.
2. Michigan already lost to Ohio State and no one outside of the Gainesville metropolitan area is jazzed up about a Gator-Buckeye championship. If you ever wanted to see a team like Boise State get a shot, this should be it.
3. The program deserves it. With 85 wins in eight years, it's not like this is some fluky, one-season wonder.
4. Fine, so the schedule is awful getting to fatten up on WAC teams, but Boise State obliterated Oregon State 42-14, beat a very good Hawaii team 41-34, crushed Utah 36-3, and stomped on Nevada 38-7.The Broncos have shown up in big occasions all year long and played their best football.
5. George Mason!
If the 8th and 9th ranked or 16th and 17th ranked teams are involved in a controversy to see who gets the last playoff spot few (outside of those schools) would give a darn. ....unlike the current system where the controversy revolves around the top 2 or 3 rated teams.
sounds to me like the OSU fans are afraid to play michigan again.
If every game in college football is meaningful without a playoff, how did Nebraska get to the national championship 5 years ago after getting demolished by Colorado, and not even winning their conference?
As far as I know, division 1 college football is the only sport on the face of the planet except Euro soccer leagues that doesn't have a playoff, and at least the soccer leagues play each other the same number of times.
Think what you want. I have no doubt that with Tressel and Troy leading the Bucks, the Wolverines wouldn't make the cut. Buckeyes would beat Mich-again! Too bad we won't get to find out. Tell the Wolverines to take out their frustration on USC in the Rose Bowl.
Well... like FL has a chance... please... BTW what round is troy smith going to be drafted in? LOL
The only way we get rid of all the controversy is to go to a 16 team playoff. The format would include all 11 Conference Champs, and 5 at-large teams. The at large teams would be the 5 hghest ranking teams other than the conference champs. That would be the only fair way to do a playoff. The BCS conferences have had a lock on this for too long. The only way to get a "true National Champ" is to include the so-called Mid-Major conferences.
Don't get me wrong, I love College Football, it's the only game in town where every game, every week matters. But is very unfair that 6 conferences get to play for the prize, while the other 5 can only watch from the sidelines. A true playoff would go a long way in helping the Mid -Majors with recruiting, they still won't get the 5 star blue chipper, but they would be able to land a few more 4 and 3 star guys who would otherwise go to Texas or Ohio St. Those kids might just stay home because they know their conference now has a legitimate shot in tournament format.
While I agree that a playoff would have to include conference champions, I would disagree about the at-large bids. 11 conference champions only, highest-rated get first-round byes.
That way you MUST win your conference to play for the NC.
No question in my mind that Florida deserves to be in this game. I don't necessarily believe that they are any better than Michigan or LSU or USC but they deserve this game more than them.
Boise State is not in the same class as any of those three.
I put the at-large teams in there to keep the BCS pimps happy. But the only true playoff system is one that takes ALL 11 conference champs. By the way, do you know what the true meaning of the acronym BCS is? Big Crock of S@#t!
Michigan should not be in that game. It is no better than USC, Florida or LSU.
Florida beat 9 bowl teams. Michigan 6.
And the OSU beat Michigan handily. The final score is not indicative of the game and Michigan was pretty much out of it after the first quarter. If they were to meet again the score would not be that close.
Why should a second place team in their own conference get a shot at the national title?
However, I hope this situation really puts some spurs in the NCAA to give us a playoff.
3 points at home?
"Boise State is not in the same class as any of those three."
Why? Because you say so? I guess we will never find out untill there is a playoff system in place. I also recall the same being said about Utah when they busted the BCS 2 years ago. Everyone said "Utah doesn't belong, they can't hang with the big boys". What did they do in the Fiesta Bowl? They not only proved they belonged, but they completely embarased a BCS school. Enough of this BCS crap, decide the damn thing on the field!!
Big 10 has seven bowl bound teams and three top 20. SEC has 9 and five top twenty.
If an Arkansas punt returner had not lost his mind you would be seeing OSU vs UM once again though.
If OSU not fumbled the ball twice, the OSU/UM game wouldn't have been close enough for anyone to even consider a rematch. 'Ifs' and 'buts'.....
Meaningless tds at the end does not mean the game was that close. I watched in and never felt UM was going to win it after the first quarter.
And what was that Utah coach's name? His name escapes me at the moment.
Boise State's schedule is just too weak.
Football in college is not conducive to a playoff either. Football has too many injuries as the games pile up and now some schools are already playing 14 games. That is a lot of games for kids. Adding another 3 just does not seem good.
Anyone believing playoffs would help this must not be watching the playoffs in the NFL and MLB if they believe they invariably select the best team.
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