Posted on 12/02/2006 9:05:42 PM PST by DeaconBenjamin2
Florida and Chris Leak beat Arkansas 38-28 to win the SEC Championship. According to the CFN Formula, which ranks the teams based on who had the best seasons, the Gators deserve to play for the national title. Not only isn't Michigan No. 2 in the CFN Formula, it's not third, or even fourth.
Who should play Ohio State for the national title? Michigan will most likely end up playing Ohio State in a rematch, but does it deserve it? According to the CFN Formula, which ranks teams based on what actually happened on the field and takes all subjectivity out of it, here are the rankings of four teams currently in the debate for the number two spot. This is NOT a ranking of which teams are the best or most talented. This is a formula to find out which teams had the best seasons based on who they played, who they beat, and who they lost to. We'll put out the entire 119-team ranking next week.
Out of Michigan, Florida, Louisville and Boise State ...
The Formula's Components:
1. Wins. - If you win, everything else falls into place. Each win counts as 1.
2. Quality Wins - The number of wins over teams that finished with a winning record. Each win counts as 1.
3. Elite Wins - The number of wins over teams that finished with two losses or fewer. Each win counts as 1 with a road win over an Elite team getting an extra 0.5. Also counting as 1 is a road win over a team that finished with three losses or fewer (but the extra 0.5 isn't added).
4. Bad Loss - The number of losses to teams that finished with three wins or fewer or a loss to a DI-AA team. Each loss counts as minus-1. Take away an additional 0.5 for a Bad Loss at home.
5. Bad Win - The number of wins to teams that finished with three wins or fewer, or a win over a D-IAA team. Each win counts as minus 0.25.
6. Elite Loss - The number of losses to teams that finished with two losses or fewer. Each loss counts as 0.25.
7. Point Differential - Points for minus points against divided by 100.
8. Winning Percentage - To take losses into account, winning percentage is in the mix.
1. Florida CFN Score: 24.92
Record: 12-1, Quality Wins: 7, Elite Wins 3, Bad Loss 0, Bad Win 1, Elite Loss 1, Point Difference 2, Winning % 0.92
2. Louisville CFN Score: 21.60
Record: 11-1, Quality Wins: 6, Elite Wins 1, Bad Loss 0, Bad Win 1, Elite Loss 1, Point Difference 2.68, Winning % 0.92
3. Boise State CFN Score: 21.11
Record: 12-0, Quality Wins: 5, Elite Wins 1, Bad Loss 0, Bad Win 3, Elite Loss 0, Point Difference 2.86, Winning % 1.00
4. Michigan CFN Score: 20.54
Record: 11-1, Quality Wins: 4, Elite Wins 2.5, Bad Loss 0, Bad Win 0, Elite Loss 1, Point Difference 1.87, Winning % 0.92
Case for Michigan
1. Michigan is generally acknowledged by almost everyone as the nation's second best team. Even when USC was ranked number two, that was more of a function of the voters preventing a rematch than it was a confirmation of the Trojans.
2. The first game in Columbus didn't settle the issue in the minds of many. If you're a believer that home field advantage means three points, then Michigan and Ohio State are dead even. Now, many want to see what would happen on a neutral field.
3. Going into this last weekend, Michigan played the nation's third toughest schedule behind Cincinnati and one other team which will go nameless for a moment.
4. It's not like Florida showed great pizzazz getting to 12-1. There's a reason no one's been pushing the Gators for the national title; it has been a bit zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz (Percy Harvin excluded). While style points shouldn't matter, Florida got sacked by Auburn in a 27-17 loss; the offense was shut down in the second half (but the defense was impressive). Michigan's one loss, of course, was as forgivable as it gets.
5. The offense should be every bit as good in a rematch with Ohio Stat, if not better. Mario Manningham was just getting back in the swing of things. One of the nation's best receivers, Michigan's offense is far more potent when he's 100% and rolling. Those 39 points and close to 400 yards of total offense weren't a fluke.
Case for Florida
1. Schedule, schedule, schedule. Going into the final weekend of the season, the Gators played the nation's toughest schedule, and it wasn't even close. The cumulative opposition winning percentage was 0.643. Number two Cincinnati was 0.622. That might not seem like much, but it is.
2. The SEC deserves a break. Auburn got hosed in 2003 when USC and Oklahoma squared off for the national title. If you believe the SEC is the nation's toughest conference, then its champion should go in.
3. Michigan didn't win it's own conference title. If you're the number two in your league, how is it possible, theoretically or practically, that you should be named the best team in the country?
4. Michigan beat an overrated Notre Dame team that had one win over a team with a pulse (Georgia Tech) and got by Wisconsin before the Badger offense, primarily the receivers, began to jell. Ohio State and Michigan basically fattened up their records against a horrible Big Ten while Florida ended up beating nine bowl teams and lost to one.
5. The defense is the real deal. The secondary might be a bit suspect, but the front seven, despite injuries, is rock-solid. Throw in a veteran quarterback like Chris Leak, and a head coach in Urban Meyer who doesn't lose when he gets more than two weeks to prepare, and you have a team more than good enough to not just challenge the Buckeyes, but beat them. Michigan had its chance, and lost.
Case for ... Boise State?!
1. 12-0. There are two teams in America without a loss. Boise State does play in Division-I, doesn't it? If there's no playoff and no chance to actually prove it on the field, you do have to consider all 119 teams for the title. It's time to pay more than lip-service when it comes to giving the "little guy" a shot.
2. Michigan already lost to Ohio State and no one outside of the Gainesville metropolitan area is jazzed up about a Gator-Buckeye championship. If you ever wanted to see a team like Boise State get a shot, this should be it.
3. The program deserves it. With 85 wins in eight years, it's not like this is some fluky, one-season wonder.
4. Fine, so the schedule is awful getting to fatten up on WAC teams, but Boise State obliterated Oregon State 42-14, beat a very good Hawaii team 41-34, crushed Utah 36-3, and stomped on Nevada 38-7.The Broncos have shown up in big occasions all year long and played their best football.
5. George Mason!
Well, that was a given. I just thought maybe there was some other factor that I wasn't accounting for, so I made a feeble attempt at humor. Mea culpa.
OSU-UF for the championship. Absolutely. And I am in no way a UF fan, although it would be nice to see the SEC finally get a chance to play a game they've deserved to play for a while.
Anyone who is in favor of an OSU-Michigan championship game needs to answer the following question: why should OSU have to beat Michigan twice to win a national championship, yet Michigan would only have to win one of two OSU games to win the championship?
If anyone can provide a logical response to that absurd conclusion, then and only then will I listen to any arguments about Michigan getting a rematch against OSU.
Why must college football adopt a playoff system? Why must everything be homogenized, made the same, made bland. College football has been exciting for years. If you don't like college football, then don't watch it. Why force it to be more like every other sport? There was nothing wrong with the old bowl system. It's a shame they did away with it, because it wasn't "good" enough. Maybe college football season should be scripted, so that maximum ratings can be achieved.
It sounds like you need some convincing. How about this?
OSU under Tressel has beaten UM under Carr five of six times since Tressel took over the head coach position in 2001.
Troy Smith was the quarterback for the Buckeyes in the last three games of the series, and Chad Henne was the quarterback for the (losing) Wolverines. The scores were 21-37, 21-25, and 39-42 UM to OSU (2004, 2005, 2006 respectively).
Troy Smith is the first quarterback to lead the Buckeyes to three consecutive wins over Michigan since Tippy Dye accomplished this feat (1934-36).
IMO, there is a pretty good chance that any rematch between OSU and UM this season will end up much like the last several times that Tressel has gone up against Carr. It hasn't mattered where they play.
For my money, I'd much rather watch the Buckeyes go against a team they don't get to play every year. It's not like Florida is a completely unworthy opponent.
Florida deserves to be in the NC game. Michigan is not even a conferenne champion and already lost to Ohio State.
Let us see how the BCS screws the SEC over this time around.
This is what I thought you meant by raw numbers.
Florida barely got past Georgia, Vandy, South Carolina and a pathetic FSU team, all in a 5 week period... and they still play games against teams that struggle in Div I-AA.
Actually, that's a simple one to answer. There is no "unfairness". Had Michigan won 42-39, Ohio State would likely get a re-match (could anyone seriously call for Florida over OSU for the #2 slot?), and would "only have to beat Michigan once, but Michigan has to beat them twice"... in other words, the set-up is the same for each.
Before the OSU-MICH game, nobody thought that Michigan only needs to win one of those games, because that was not, and is not, the actual issue. The apparent "logical fallacy in favor of Michigan" is just a play on words, and a lame hope for Florida fans to excuse their failure to have a single dominant win since September (well, against a Div I team, anyway).
8-24-02 TEXAS TECH @Columbus, OH WON 45-21
9-7-02 KENT STATE WON 51-17
9-14-02 WASHINGTON STATE WON 25-7
9-21-02 at Cincinnati @Paul Brown Stadium WON 23-19
9-28-02 INDIANA WON 45-17
10-5-02 at Northwestern WON 27-16
10-12-02 SAN JOSE STATE (HC) WON 50-7
10-19-02 at Wisconsin WON 19-14
10-26-02 PENN STATE WON 13-7
11-2-02 MINNESOTA WON 34-3
11-9-02 at Purdue WON 10-6
11-16-02 at Illinois WON 23-16 (OT)
11-23-02 MICHIGAN WON 14-9
FIESTA BOWL @Tempe, AZ 1-3-03 Miami FL WON 31-24 (2OT)
If Michigan had won that game, no one would expect Ohio State in the National Championship game unless everyone else had 2 losses.
But get past them they did. 12-1.
What was Michigan's quality win? Two touchdowns over Wisconsin?
The Wolverines had one quality loss. That was against Ohio State. Been there, done that.
Bring on the Gators.
And BTW, the author might have appeared credible until he dropped this bit of bias: "Ohio State and Michigan basically fattened up their records against a horrible Big Ten". Utter nonsense.
They are not alone, which is what this is all about. (I kinda like the argument above for Boise State, too!)
Michigan is not even a conference champion and already lost to Ohio State.
Neither is a disqualifier for getting a bid in the current (horrible) system. They only need to be one of the top two teams in the nation, which they are.
Let us see how the BCS screws the SEC over this time around.
THAT is one problem for me. I've been a big SEC fan all season, and lamented how some great teams won't end up in the top 12 because they all have to play each other. Tennessee's three losses were all to teams in the top EIGHT! (The same goes for Penn St... four losses, all to teams in the top ten, does not mean you're not at least in the top 25.)
However, every time I watched Florida play, I kept wondering how they could truly be a contender. They just don't have a solid team, nor could they ever put a game away. Five of their wins were a single play away from a loss or overtime. Beating TENN, ARK, LSU, and UGA in a season is great, but the close calls against inferior opponents just won't let me root for them. (Michigan had only one similar "bad win", against Ball State, as they looked ahead to the OSU pre-championship game.)
Were there any other conferences in football this year other than the Big Ten, SEC, and the Big East? 11 of the top 16 teams (and I think Penn St and Tennessee are under-rated... seven losses, but none to a team ranked lower than 10th!)
There are any number of ways the numbers can be crunched. It's a free country. You can choose the ones you like or dislike. If you can show me an analysis where Michigan comes out on top, I'd be happy to review it. Maybe you'll convince me.
You think Ohio State would be the considered WORST of the 1-loss teams? I think you're over-stating it a bit. They dominated every game they played, all year long, including then-#2 Texas (too bad they got to skip 'Sconsin this year). Even Michigan was playing from behind for the entire game.
Why do you need an analysis when you have an actual game to look back on. Michigan went to Columbus, on Seniors Day, against the Number 1 team in the country and lost by 3. Florida will be crushed by Ohio State. Then all of the analysts, the same ones that not once questioned USC's premature crowning though all of the same arguments made today for Florida stood last week, will be put in their proper places.
No. I think Ohio State would not receive the love Michigan has received. "They couldn't take care of business at home, why should they be given a second chance?"
Michigan has already been crushed by Ohio State. The final score was misleading. Michigan was gasping the entire game.
We don't need an incestuous national championship game involving two teams who have already settled the matter between them on the field.
LOL, they were not crushed. You will see crushed when Ohio State plays Florida.
What we should expect is to see the 2 best teams in the country play. I don't see anyone making the argument that Florida is the second best team in the country.
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