Posted on 11/07/2006 6:05:24 PM PST by jbwbubba
Any word TKS spot with Jim and Obi Wan? I can't get to his site and wonder if Obi Wan is positive or going negative? Thanks
Last update I saw Obi was pretty hopeful. Its' on a thread somewhere.
Last thing out of Obi Wan was essentially Wait and see. NRO is screwy right now, very slow and out of whack when it comes up.
11/07 07:29 PM
From Obi Wan Kenobi:
Possibility one - this is the long-hyped, recently-doubted Democratic wave election, and only Corker and Kyl were equipped to withstand it.
Possibility two - Hugh Hewitt is right, and my connected Republican guy is right, that there's a 7 point error in the exit polling model. Start doing the math, it turns out to be a good night for Republicans, particularly if you take seven from the Dem, add seven to the Republican. In that case, we're in great shape everywhere except OH and PA.
Possibility three - voter models aren't that off, and you have the standard small bias for the Democrats because the exit polls are disproportionately in urban areas. So you give the Republicans two to three points. Obi stresses this is not new; it was standard practice in reacting to old CNN polling unit. Meaning Republicans keep AZ, TN and MO, and hope for bigger polling mistakes anywhere else. Not a bad night, not as good night.
I remember 2004. And Obi says, like 2004, we're going to know soon; we'll soon be able to start comparing the raw vote totals going in to the exit poll numbers.
Also, I am told, have not heard myself:
Fox News just said on the basis of exit polls that the gubernatorial contests in Vermont, Georgia, and South Carolina are too close to call. That’s highly unlikely. All three incumbents had leads approaching 20 points going into Election Day.
If true, this is big.
UPDATE: At the NRANews.com studio, Marshall Manson tells me they aren't conducting exit polls in Vermont and South Carolina. So I don't know where that rumor got started.
The future - uncertain it is.
There's nothing wrong with posting your question on an existing thread, especially on a busy night.
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