4: Rethinking the Global Radiative Forcing Concept (Chapter 4 from the online National Academies Press book Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties (2005)
The chart on page 88 is impressive. And it shows for CO2 that if the tropopause forcing is 1 W m-2, that the surface forcing for CO2 can range from 0.38 to 1.12 W m-2. So if both factors are multiplied by 4 for doubled CO2 (giving 4 W m-2 at the tropopause), then the surface forcing can range from ~1.6 (your preferred value) to 4.48 W m-2. Correct? This shows the wide range of uncertainties.
You might comment on the section beginning on page 89, "Global mean radiative forcing at the surface".
The chart on page 88 is impressive. And it shows for CO2 that if the tropopause forcing is 1 W m-2, that the surface forcing for CO2 can range from 0.38 to 1.12 W m-2. So if both factors are multiplied by 4 for doubled CO2 (giving 4 W m-2 at the tropopause), then the surface forcing can range from ~1.6 (your preferred value) to 4.48 W m-2. Correct?
Actually that "preferred value" is merely the middle of the road figure of model outputs by the UN/IPCC modeling efforts and certainly not "my" preferred value. Taking modulation of cloud cover by cosmic ray fluctuations into account, the actuall figure would probably be closer to 0.1 watts per square meter for the thermal effects of CO2 doubling at the surface.
This shows the wide range of uncertainties.
Indeed a wide range of uncertainties, especially considering the above do not even adjust for changes in cloud cover due to solar activity as a factor to be considered in the mix.
then the surface forcing can range from ~1.6 (your preferred value) to 4.48 W m-2. Correct?
Something closer to 0.1 watt per square meter for CO2 doubling after accounting for all solar and orbit related factors in the Earth's radiation balance would be the value I would expect to ultimately wash out once the debate is actually settled with science rather than hyperbole and alarmist activism.
You might comment on the section beginning on page 89, "Global mean radiative forcing at the surface".
Looks to me that India and the Asia economies have a bit to do in reducing their Black Carbon emmissions.
Course the other half is gonna get ya too: Biology News: Clear skies end global dimming LOL
Seems no matter what, them global warming alarmists have that ever upward death spiral of theirs to support.