We know the following:
1. It was a primary. A Dim primary so there is no "by party" to worry about.
2. We know on a precinct by precinct level what the actual vote was.
3. To the extent that precincts are racially segregated neighborhoods or if mixed neighborhoods are gerrymandered so the precincts are racially segregated, we can estimate the vote by race. If all precincts were 100% black or 100% white, we would know exactly the vote by race. That is not the case in Durham, but if most of the precincts are very near 100% and a few are more mixed including the other category then the estimates are likely very good. I suspect this latter description is pretty accurate.
4. I would guess Durham has many close to 100% black neighborhoods, many close to 100% white neighborhoods or white plus other neighborhoods and a few very mixed neighborhoods. [If the whites and others are mixed together that does not mess up the analysis since the researchers were only trying to break out the black vote by candidate.]
5. What is suspect in my mind and may be bothersome to you and I agree is announcing who got what vote of a group that is 12% of the population based on exit polls of the entire country including exit polls that did not turn out to be very accurate anyway. Thus if blacks are only 12% of the exit polling as they are of the national population, then the standard error on Bush receiving 12% of the black vote my be 12% or 20% or some huge standard error like that. [Good exit polling would oversample blacks to correct for this. This oversampling would not be used to predict the election results but how blacks voted.] But in this case there was no exit polling, this is just conjecturing that within each precinct the vote was split among the candidates just like the population is split. Clearly the more homogeneous the population by precinct, the better this method works.
NCCU classes set for accuser
The family of a woman who says Duke
lacrosse players raped her wants to hear from her
Samiha Khanna, Staff Writer, N&O Published: Aug 19, 2006 12:30 AM
DURHAM - The woman who accused three Duke University lacrosse players of rape is scheduled to start another semester at N.C. Central University when undergraduate courses begin Monday.
If the young woman reports to her classes, at least then, her father says, he will have some sense that she's all right.
The 28-year-old student and mother of two has virtually vanished this summer, her father said in an interview this week.
She has cut off contact with her family, and neither police nor the district attorney would say this week whether the woman is still cooperating with them.
The woman was recently observed leaving the Durham Police Department's headquarters with her two children.
But police did not comment on whether the visit was tied to the investigation into a Duke lacrosse party at 610 N. Buchanan Blvd. on March 13, where the woman was hired as a dancer and said later she was beaten, raped and sodomized.
The News & Observer is not naming the accuser or her family members because it is the paper's policy not to identify people listed as victims of sexual assault on police reports.
The notoriety and publicity has mounted since the assault was reported. The mainstream media have never printed or uttered her name, but her identity is far from a secret.
"Everyone knows who she is, by now," the woman's father said.
Since making the allegations, the woman has been depressed, lost weight and has stopped communicating with her family, her father said.
The 62-year-old retired truck driver says he hasn't seen his daughter since June, when he happened to spot her sitting in a friend's car at a traffic light on Fayetteville Street.
"She said she was doing fine," he said. "I asked where [her] kids were, and she said they were out of town. ... Then the light changed."
The accuser's father and mother said they are desperate to see their grandchildren, ages 7 and 6.
The couple also marked their daughter's 28th birthday last month, but they lament the fact that they didn't know where to send well wishes and gifts.
"I used to see her every day until all this stuff [happened]," the woman's father said.
The worried father said he wasn't aware his daughter was scheduled to go back to school at N.C. Central University next week until it was confirmed by a reporter.
Sharon Saunders, special assistant to the chancellor for public relations, said this week that the woman is enrolled for the fall semester, but she could not say what degree she is pursuing or how many classes she must complete before that degree is earned.
The News & Observer has previously confirmed that the woman was studying psychology last semester and had a 3.75 grade-point average.
Despite arguments presented by defense attorneys and critics of the case that the rape didn't occur, the woman's father said he still believes his daughter was physically harmed at the Duke lacrosse party.
"She wouldn't go to the hospital if she was going to make something up," he said.
http://www.newsobserver.com/102/story/476911.html