Study says black vote aided Nifong
No basis for racial 'lacrosse gap' seen
Michael Biesecker, Staff Writer, N&O Published: May 06, 2006 12:30 AM
DURHAM - A precinct-by-precinct analysis of results from the Democratic primary for district attorney shows incumbent Mike Nifong won in large part on the strength of his support from Durham's black voters.
But the study also reflects an electorate not polarized by race in the wake of rape accusations against two Duke University lacrosse players that catapulted the local election into the national media spotlight. The percentage of whites and blacks supporting Nifong was nearly balanced -- close to the 45 percent he won overall.
The statistical analysis, compiled by a political science professor at Vanderbilt University, indicates that white voters split on Nifong, with a slim majority supporting challenger Freda Black. However, blacks voted for Nifong by a nearly 2-to-1 ratio over Black, who finished 883 votes behind Nifong, unofficial results showed.
Nifong also garnered significantly more support from blacks than Keith Bishop, the only black candidate in the race. Bishop, a lawyer who did little campaigning, received the coveted endorsement of the Durham Committee on the Affairs of Black People, which historically has delivered strong support from blacks on Election Day to its favored candidates.
"Often in Durham, whenever there is a black candidate who receives the endorsement of the Durham Committee, then they get a majority of the black vote," said Christian Grose, the Vanderbilt professor and a Duke graduate. In this case, he said, "a white candidate [Nifong] who did not get the endorsement of the committee got a greater percentage of the black vote. That's not to say that race wasn't part of the story, but race was not the determining factor in this election."
Nifong obtained felony indictments last month against two white student-athletes accused of kidnapping and raping a dancer hired to perform at a March 13 team party. The accuser, a mother of two and honor student at N.C. Central University, is black. Both the accuser and another woman of mixed African-American and Asian ancestry who was hired to dance that evening say some men at the party used racial epithets.
"The Duke lacrosse case was the overwhelming issue," said Philip Cousin, a longtime Durham Committee member who is also a Durham County commissioner and the minister at St. Joseph's AME Church. "I think a lot of people thought there wouldn't be any arrests. When Nifong came through with the indictments, that indicated to the black community he would be fair."
Nifong said Friday he was not surprised at the study's results but added that he also thinks the lacrosse case hurt him with some of the county's other voters.
"It was obvious to me early on that we did really well in the predominantly black precincts," Nifong said. "As I would go through the black community before the election, people would stop me and say, 'Keep your head up. We're with you.'... But it [the Duke lacrosse case] cut both ways. It hurt me among conservative white voters. I expect if this issue had never come up we would have ended up with the same outcome."
More than a third of registered voters in Durham County are black, but the percentage is higher among Democrats.
Nifong was routinely on front pages and television newscasts in the weeks before the election, memorably appearing at NCCU. He also had some help reaching out to blacks. Mark Simeon, a local black lawyer who ran for district attorney in 2002, introduced Nifong at his church and other events.
Black also courted black support. A gospel singer she referred to as her "black campaign manager" introduced her at political events. In a campaign mailer, Black is shown consulting with a black man, the only individual depicted other than the candidate.
Bishop, meanwhile, put the phrase "Let's Make History" on his campaign signs, a reminder that no black person has ever been elected as district attorney in Durham.
"I wanted to vote for Bishop, but I knew he didn't have a chance [of winning]," said Lynn Fofanah, a black woman interviewed Tuesday moments after she voted. "So I voted for Nifong."
HOW RACE WAS A FACTOR
Vanderbilt University professor Christian Grose took voting results from all 55 Durham precincts and analyzed them using demographic data about the race of registered voters in those precincts compiled for the federal government to monitor compliance with the Voting Rights Act. The results are statistical estimates of how those going to the polls in Durham likely voted by race.
MIKE NIFONG
44 percent of the black vote, 46.2 percent of the white/nonblack vote, 45.2 percent of total vote
FREDA BLACK
25.2 percent of the black vote, 50.6 percent of the white/nonblack vote, 41.5 percent of total vote
KEITH BISHOP
30.8 percent of the black vote, 3.2 percent of the white/nonblack vote, 13.3 percent of total vote
* For the record *
I took a statistical analysis class in college about 1,000 years ago, and I respect the theory. However, I have a hard time buying some of this assumption. We don't really know for sure how votes went by race or party. This model assumes precincts voted per their demographic; but, what if more black voters than white were drawn to the polls because of this case. Wouldn't that throw the stats off?