[Rockingham]

A worthy parable, but I suspect something more rapid and above the table will occur, like East Europe in 1989.

The driving forces are the Cubans on the island and the exiles. The island population is usually depicted as satisfied with communism or exhausted, but, due to their friendliness with visiting Americans, I suspect they are waiting for their moment, as East Europeans were. The exiles are energetic, restive, and wealthy, and are eager to push and pry at every seam and weakness.

The imponderable are how long the Castro brothers will live or keep their grip on things, and the degree and quality of violence that will attend the end of their regime. Will they die or become incapacitated before the end of the year, or linger for several years, with lessening repression to keep matters from boiling over?

Will there be riots, arson, or mass disobedience as in East Germany, or a coup d'etat by the security services as in Romania? Perhaps a bloody repression that requires US response? No doubt some would be reformers like Gorbachev or Deng are waiting in the wings, but will they even have a chance to gain the stage, or will events overwhelm their efforts?

The calendar is a regular thing, but History moves in fits and starts. At the this moment, in Cuba, it is lacing up its sprinter shoes.

[ClaireSolt]

I can think of lots of examples of people who wanted to liberalize tyrannical regimes gradually. but I can think of no successes. Those who try meet the fate of Nicholas and Alexandra. Revolutions are messy and unpredictable, to be sure, but a little freedom just doesn't cut it.