Your arguments are certainly plausible. But a "threat" could take some other form than physical. He may have skeletons in the closet, etc. Again, merely theories on my part.
As for the deal theory, that is certainly possible - nothing would surprise me. One thing to consider is that a "deal" "could" be construed as obstruction or bribery, and would therefore entail some exposure to new risk for Cheek or Nifong. Of course Nifong may be thinking, in for a penny, in for a pound.
But one thing is for sure. The local DriveBy Media sure ain't asking enough questions...
Don't you know that attorneys are basically exempt from the bribery laws? Certainly attorneys discuss settling difference often including cash changing hands all the time.
You are right, I took the harm to be physical harm, but similarly if a problem about an office holder has gotten out, he knows that it is out of the bag and can not be put back in. If this were the case, Cheek would be finished. He could not run for office again. He would soon be worthless to any clients.
Another aspect of this is this deal being in the works makes Nifong a liar yet again in his press conference. He is saying this case is a Durham problem that needs a Durham solution at the same time he is negotiating to remove the case from a 100% Durham solution.
This is also setting the table for anyone who might be running against him to campaign on Nifong treating the accused lacrosse players differently than other defendants. I think Nifong would make such a move continent on not having opposition that could campaign against him based on this special treatment.