I think you are right, he will grab the points here, probably stay out front to take Col du Maurienne, then he will play good little team member and let Menchov catch him on the descent.
Current standings for the maillot à pois rouge:
Pos. N° Name Surname Team Nat. Points
1 143 DE LA FUENTE David SDV ESP 108
2 058 RASMUSSEN Mickael RAB DEN 93
3 015 SCHLECK Frank CSC LUX 74
4 071 LANDIS Floyd PHO USA 63
The first man to the top of Col de la Croix de Fer scores 20 points. The first man to the top of Col du Mollard scores 10 points, and then double points for La Toussuire, meaning 30 KOTM points to the stage winner.