A look ahead: GC battle likely in stormy weather on Sunday
By John Wilcockson
VeloNews editorial director
This report filed July 15, 2006
Saturday's long, hot and laborious stage 13 across the deep south of France was debilitating for everyone at the Tour de France. And it was no surprise that a small group of riders deep in the general classification successfully conducted a breakaway of more than 200km - even though few expected Floyd Landis and his Phonak team to let the break gain half an hour and hand their former teammate, Oscar Pereiro, the yellow jersey.
While Pereiro, stage winner Jens Voigt and their companions averaged a solid 42.5 kph on the rolling course between the Mediterranean and Rhône Valley, the peloton, led by Phonak, rode a very conservative 38.5-kph tempo on the 230km stage. They'll need to work much harder on Sunday, even though Pereiro's Caisse d'Épargne-Illes Balears team now has the first responsibility for pulling the pack.
The Montélimar to Gap stage features two Cat.3 and two Cat. 2 climbs in the foothills between Provence and the high Alps. Typically, Tour stages in this rugged terrain see plenty of action - such as in 1991 when race leader Miguel Induráin missed a mid-stage break and was rescued by his senior teammate Pedro Delgado after a long chase.
The hardest of Sunday's climbs is the 9km, 5-percent Col de Perty that tops out at 4275 feet elevation halfway though the 180.5km stage. Any of the 12 riders sitting within five minutes of Landis on GC might be encouraged to attack here, especially as there is a rest day coming up in Gap on Monday. Should, say, the T-Mobile, CSC and/or Rabobank teams surge on the Col de Perty, they could leave Landis with just two teammates, Axel Merckx and Miguel Martin Perdiguero, the only ones to have shown strength on this Tour's climbing stages.
What could add to the likely drama of a GC battle is the high risk of thunderstorms - with hailstones and gusting winds - throughout the final two hours of Sunday's stage. If that bad weather materializes then Phonak will have to do more than just ride tempo with Caisse d'Épargne. And even if Landis's teammates manage to control the breaks, they could falter on the day's other Cat. 2 climb, the 5km, 5-percent Col de la Sentinelle
From the Sentinelle's summit, the narrow, twisty back road descends through 600 vertical feet in 5km, then goes up a short hill before descending another 300 feet in 1.5km. This brings the course within 2km of the finish - which races through the streets of Gap via five roundabouts to a short, 300-meter-long finishing straight.
Such a tight, technical finale favors a solo breakaway, especially someone who attacks and gets clear on the Sentinelle uphill. This is a different finish to the one in 1996 at Gap, when Erik Zabel won a small group sprint at the end of 1.5km straightaway after the whole peloton arrived at the foot of the Sentinelle on a much easier stage than Sunday's.
Who can be expected to win this time? Assuming that Landis and his team can halt the more dangerous attacks then the tricky finish into Gap suits strong all-around riders like Patrik Sinkewitz (T-Mobile), Michael Boogerd (Rabobank) or George Hincapie (Discovery Channel).
Sweet. Hail.