Posted on 07/10/2006 8:49:41 PM PDT by nutmeg
Can't shoot you. We're gonna need you to crew when Ready4freddy captain's us on his Sou'wester 61 trans-at & up the Thames for next years' TdF start in London!
It's going to be very interesting to see just who TMO supports as the GC starts to shake out. Sinkewitz turns 26 this year, and has 1 Tour participation, finishing last year. I think you're right, he's probably the future of TMO.
If Landis stays with Leipheimer through the mountains, then yes, Leipheimer is out of it. Levi will need to gain significant time on Floyd (and even if he does, remember there is still another TT one week from Saturday). He can still get a podium spot, but will need to put significant time into the field up in the mountains.
You need more crew? ;>)
I am a fairly new fan of the tour, but I think from the last couple of years that the first week pretty much have been the sprinters time to dominate.
As for your other questions, I'll have to defer the questions to the more knowledgable fans ;-)
Is your picnic boat on LBJ the Hinkley kind, or is it one of those flat party boat thingamajibbies?
I'm guessing T-Mobile will support Kloden, as the veteran, unless it becomes obvious he's holding Sinkewitz - or someone else - back.
Heck, yes. I've done some calculations & I think we can just fit all the FR TdF'ers on that 61.
Saint-Girons (VIELLE-SAINT-GIRONS) - Km 128 Points
1 172 BENETEAU Walter 6
2 186 KNEES Christian 4
3 132 AUGE Stéphane 2
Tomorrow probalby won't do much tot he GC because of the long downhill into pau. Thursday, with it's mountain-top finish in Val-d'aran will probably show us who has the legs.
Back in '01, Armstrong was over half an hour down to Stuart O'Grady at this point (and 20 minutes or so to Andrei Kivilev) in the GC, due to a huge 14 rider breakaway in stage 8. They all finished 36 minutes ahead of the peleton. None could keep the lead in the mountains.
I see T-Mobile just fired one of its managers (I forget the name) because of possible doping links. Meanwhile, T-Mobile has emerged as the team with the most contenders in the TDF . . . therefore, is there any concern that T-Mobile's success (if it continues) might be challenged or tarnished?
That seems to be the case already. OLN commentators, blogs, almost everybody seem to be obliquely grumbling about the fact that TMo's squad arbitrarily if not downright miraculously escaped Operation Puerto's axe.
Theoretically, a rider could be more than 10 min back at this point and still make it up but practically, that doesn't happen. Anyone who has a legitimate shot (Landis, Hincapie, Kloden,etc) will be chased if they try to get away from the peloton which, of course, is the only way to make up big time gaps. The way that a rider can succeed, however, is if he can ride like Lance did- truly riding away from the pack that is incapable of following. Frankly, I don't see a rider being that dominant this year. Lance had a way of dancing on his pedals and devastating the field. We also have the ITT the next to last day so a rider who is a lousy TTr would have to build a heck of an advantage to protect his lead that day or he'd have to ride a strong ITT himself- favors riders like Landis IMO.
WOW, what a sprint by Freire!! No change to the GC, tho.
Does anyone remember this even vaguely as I described it? What year / what mountain? luv2ski seems to have a great memory for such things, help us out here!! ;>)
Theoretically, a rider could be more than 10 min back at this point and still make it up but practically, that doesn't happen.
It seems like they usually get to the mountains 1 stage quicker in the clockwise years, since the Alps are so much further north, and the Tour 'always' starts in the north. Could be interesting w/ the UK start next year, wonder where the 1st continental stage will be??
Is it normal for the tour to take this long to get to the mountains?
Wouldn't that be a hoot!
Ooops, meant to mention - how fast they get to the mountains is also a function of how many mountain stages are set for a particular Tour. This year only has 5 'real' mountain stages (10 & 11 in the Pyrenees, 15-17 in the Alps), many times there are 6. For whatever reason they appear to be hitting the Pyrenees lightly this year, only 2 stages, and mostly lesser, or at least less storied climbs (as if any stage w/ multiple 1's & 22's, & an HC or two can be called 'lesser' LOL!! :).
Yes, that's what I was talking about (tho' I got Armstrong's deficit to Kililev wrong.) Here's what Wiki says about 2001 stage 8:
The peloton took a day-off, but not so a group of 14 riders that had broken away. In the end they had a lead of almost 36 minutes, by far the largest one achieved in recent history. Even a lead of 22 minutes had not occurred in the last 25 years. Formally, this meant that the whole peloton finished out of time limits, but the referees understandably used a rule saying that they could give clemency to any group of more than 20% of the stage's starting riders, officially citing the weather conditions as their reason to do so. Still, the effects on the general classification were huge: Stuart O'Grady, who was in the group, retook the yellow jersey, and is now over 35 minutes ahead of Armstrong. Armstrong also has to make good over half an hour on Frenchman François Simon. Perhaps even more dangerous is Andrei Kivilev. He is 'only' 13 minutes ahead of Armstrong, but unlike the others from the escape group, he is known to be good in the mountains, so he needs not lose very much on the toppers in the rest of the Tour.
Stage 10 ended on Alp d'Huez, and Lance made up all but 2 minutes on O'Grady. But he was still 20 min behind Simon and 8 behind Kivilev. Lance finally took the lead on stage 13.
2001 was also the year of "The Look," when Lance looked Ullrich squah in the eye and took off up l'Alpe D'Huez, winning the stage and putting something like a minute and a half into Ullrich.
As a rule of thumb, the tour goes clockwise around France in odd years and counter clockwise in the evens.
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