I agree with you. If I had to bet on one team it would be the hosts or at best another Euro team. A team off the continent would be going against the trends of World Cups in general.
But don´t forget Argentina and Brasil. I´m curious how they´re performing their next game. On my A list are Spain, Argentina, (Brasil,) Germany and Italy. On my B list are the Czechs, England, (France,) Netherlands.