(05/15/06 - DURHAM) - A third indictment in the Duke University lacrosse team rape case is likely and it will involve the player identified with "90 percent certainty" by the alleged victim during a photo lineup, ABC News has learned.
According to multiple sources, the defense attorney representing the player got a courtesy call from Durham County District Attorney Mike Nifong alerting him of a possible indictment. Although defense attorneys are expecting an indictment and have been told that one is likely, prosecutors could change their minds and plans at any time.
According to the DNA report, tests specifically designed to look for semen found none on swabs of the alleged victim's mouth or genital areas. This is noteworthy, defense lawyers said, because in at least one affidavit and in the transcript of the photo identification lineup, the alleged victim said she was raped orally, vaginally and anally by three members of the Duke men's lacrosse team.
However, numerous prosecutors have told ABC News that a rape could have occurred and that convictions were possible even if there was no semen found on the accuser. The alleged victim does not say in any affidavit whether any of her attackers ejaculated during the alleged assault.
The report also says that tests looking specifically for blood on the fake fingernail found in a bathroom trash can were negative. This could be significant because the accuser has said that she broke her fingernails while defending herself against the alleged attackers, and scratching them. It is unclear, however, whether her scratches drew blood.
One of the three men has told ABC News that he spoke to the alleged victim the night of the March 13 party. Another man is the alleged victim's boyfriend, and defense attorneys identified him in a news conference as the "single source" of DNA found to date in vaginal swabs of the accuser.
It is unclear why the three nonlacrosse players were included in the sampling.
Defense attorneys have complained that the report does not say whether DNA was found from people other than those who provided samples the lacrosse players, the boyfriend, and the two other men. There is no way of knowing whether there was DNA from other people found on the alleged victim, the defense argues.
The report says that genetic material with the same characteristics of two lacrosse players was found underneath a plastic fingernail in a trash can in the bathroom where the accuser says she was attacked. This may have been the link prosecution sources referred to when they told ABC News that test results could be "helpful" to the prosecution.
Neither of the two men linked to the sample were Reade Seligmann or Collin Finnerty, the two Duke lacrosse players indicted in the case. However, the third Duke player who may be indicted soon was in the mixture.
A DNA link is not clear cut with the type of test used in this case, DNA experts told ABC News. ABC News spoke with DNA analysts, including Brian Meehan, head of the Burlington, N.C., laboratory that conducted the set of tests used in the case. All of the analysts agreed that the most one could say about a specific person the alleged third attacker in the Duke rape investigation was that he could not be ruled out, but also could not be definitively ruled in.
"It's not what [prosecutors] were hoping for," said David Rudolf, a North Carolina defense attorney. "It's obviously somewhat helpful, but not nearly as much as if it was a match. Instead it's simply consistent with one of the players at the party."
The fact that the DNA sample found on the nail was a mixture makes it more difficult to be certain that it can be linked to any given person, experts said. Because many people in the general population share the same genitive traits, said Dr. Elizabeth Johnson, a California-based DNA expert, "there would be many people who could have the same traits as what shows up in the mixture."
Defense attorneys are already trying to use the lack of a clear-cut link to bolster their case.
"This report shows no conclusive match between any genetic material taken on, about, in, or from the false accuser and the genetic material of any Duke lacrosse player," said attorney Joe Cheshire in a news conference.
Is a positive identification and possible linkage of DNA enough for a third indictment? Nifong proceeded with the first two indictments against Finnerty and Seligmann with no DNA match. In his case against the player defense sources say may be indicted today, Nifong has both an identification and a possible DNA link with the fake fingernail.
Nifong has said that even in the absence of any DNA match, he can still take this case to trial the "old-fashioned way" of putting a victim on the stand. He has cited a statistic that 75 percent to 80 percent of rape prosecutions proceed without DNA evidence. As a general rule, Meehan whose lab produced the DNA report agrees the absence of DNA does not kill a prosecutor's case.
"It's not necessarily true that no DNA means no crime," Meehan said. "There needs to be additional evidence."
Although much of the possible evidence made public to date may favor the defense, the strength of key elements for the prosecution remains unknown. Details of the alleged victim's medical report and of a toxicology report from that night could be crucial. The prosecution could also have witnesses, photographs or videos of that night that might bolster its case.
Perhaps most critically, Nifong has one piece of evidence that no one in the public or on the defense can even approach: the opportunity to speak with the alleged victim. ABC News' Gerry Wagschal contributed to this report.
" This could be significant because the accuser has said that she broke her fingernails while defending herself against the alleged attackers, ..."
Lie number 10,000.
My wife did the press on nail experiment this week end
Press on nails don't break off-they peel off in their entirety-with little or minimal pressure.
Pictures taken post " trauma " should have shown all 10 nails off or hanging off by rubber cement like threads.
And the only way one could be broken-was to smash it with a hammer.
Maybe they had a hammer in the bathroom with the broom.