This was my analysis as of 4/23. Nothing much has changed.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1619985/posts?page=371#371
I reread your earlier post. I'm still hanging on to the hope that Nifong is an idiot, not a self-interested manipulator. Otherwise I'm right with you.
One thing is definately right. Duke University is in the bizarre position of having the most to lose if the Lax guys are innocent. The Prez is toast if things break the wrong way.
On my pro-AV Duke Police, anti-AV Durham Police reading Duke is in even more internal trouble. Your average Duke student will line up with a pro-woman agenda up to a point, but not to the point of covering up a blatantly false prosecution of a bunch of fellow students. There will be serious repercussions internally if the case collapses, as it currently seems likely to do.
The students are going to want to know what idiot fingered these guys for prosecution. If it is Nifong, fine. No problem that the Duke administration can't whine their way out of.
If Duke Hospital staff and LEO's are in front of this stuff, the Duke administration is going to have a miserable year caught between AV-believing feminists and fed-up students, parents, alumni and repressed anti-feminist faculty.