I've been trying to relocate this article from MediaFiends but so far no luck. I saved it to my hard drive last week or the week before.
Anyway, they did a breakdown.
http://mediafiends.com/
First off, I will show you the wonderful research I discovered on Wikipedia. I had been racking my brain trying to remember the order of past bottom threes, but frankly it was next to impossible to recall. However, I located the bottom threes for every season and realized how incredibly predictably unpredictable this show really is.
SEASON ONE: (The number of visits a singer makes is listed after their name and the one in all caps went home.)
WEEK TWO: AJ GIL Ryan Starr Christina
WEEK THREE: RYAN (2) Justin Nikki
WEEK FOUR: CHRISTINA (2) RJ Nikki (2)
WEEK FIVE: RJ (2) Nikki (3)
WEEK SIX: NIKKI (5)
WEEK SEVEN: Justin (2) KELLY WINS!
Season One was the most different of all of the seasons so far, as there were only 10 people and the first week they kicked off two. This was a guys dropping like flies season at first. Nikki managed to come in third with a record FIVE trips to the bottom three!!! Kelly never saw the bottom three, like Carrie after her, and Justin had one surprise visit before losing to Kelly.
SEASON TWO:
WEEK 1: VANESSA Julia Kim L.
WEEK 2: CHARLES Corey Julia (2)
WEEK3: JULIA (3) Kim C. Rickey
WEEK 4 Corey disqualified---Kim c. &Carmen----
WEEK 5: RICKEY (2) Kim C. (2) Kim L. (2)
WEEK 6: KIM C. (3) Carmen Trenyce
WEEK 7: CARMEN (2) Josh Trenyce (2)
WEEK 8: TRENYCE (3) Ruben
WEEK 9: JOSH (2) Kim (3)
WEEK 10: KIM (4)
WEEK 11: CLAY Ruben wins.....
Season two proved that the winner could visit the bottom three at some point, leaving things wide open for following seasons. Clay NEVER saw the bottom three until he finally lost to Ruben, proving you could avoid the bottom all season and still lose the competition. This could mean Chris and Taylor need to watch out, and Paris and Elliott don't need to stress out as much as they think. Kim Locke, talented as she is, made FOUR visits to the bottom three and still came in third. Josh proves that mediocre country can get you far, but Bucky doesn't have his great military background story.... This season sucked for me because I loved Rickey, and he got unfairly voted off in place of Kim C or Carmen because of Corey being disqualified. It was so not cool.....
SEASON 3:
WEEK 1: LEAH Jennifer Amy
WEEK 2: MATT Camille Diana
WEEK 3: AMY (2) Jennifer (2) LaToya
WEEK 4: CAMILLE (2) Jasmine Diana (2)
WEEK 5: JPL John S. Diana (3)
WEEK 6: JENNIFER (3) Fantasia LaToya (2)
WEEK 7: JOHN S. (2) George Jasmine (2)
WEEK 8: GEORGE (2) Jasmine (3)
WEEK 9: LATOYA (3) Fantasia (2)
WEEK 10: JASMINE (4)
WEEK 11: DIANA (4) Fantasia wins.....
This season proved our winner could be in the bottom two TWICE, yeah that's right, TWICE!!! This was one screwed up season, with the start of Vote for the Worst, which kept John Stevens and Jasmine Trias around. Jasmine also had 4 visits to the bottom three and came in third. Hmmm....starting to see a pattern. America usually helps one person, for whatever reason skate by week after week to reach third. It's important to note that Jasmine didn't end up in the bottom three until Week 4. (Kim L made a surprise appearence the first week, but for all intents and purposes didn't really show up until week 5, and Nikki began appearing right away Week 2.) Also note, JPL left at random having never appeared in the bottom 3 week 5. So watch out Kellie Pickler!!!!!!
SEASON 4:
WEEK 1: LINDSEY Mikalah Jessica
WEEK2: MIKALAH (2) Nadia Anthony
WEEK 3: JESSICA (2) Anwar Nadia (2)
WEEK 4: NIKKO Scott Vonzell
WEEK 5: NADIA (3) Bo Scott (2)
WEEK 6: ANWAR (2) Anthony (2) Scott (3)
WEEK 7: CONSTANTINE Anthony (3) Vonzell (2)
WEEK 8: SCOTT (4) Anthony (4)
WEEK 9: ANTHONY (5) Vonzell (3)
WEEK 10: VONZELL (4)
WEEK 11: BO (2) Carrie wins.....
Scott, Vonzell, and Anthony showed up in the bottom three 13 times between the three of them, and they rounded out the top 5. (The season before them added up to 15 though!!! WHoa!!!) Carrie was never in the bottom three, the only winner to pull this off since Kelly. Constantine was the random JPL surprise, being voted off later in the game without a bottom 3 appearence.
Okay, so what did I learn? I did this research to give me peace of mind about Elliott, and I got just that. Usually, the person who makes it to third has a surprise visit to the bottom three week 4 or around that time, from there America latches on and keeps them around ala Kim Locke and Vonzell. I think this could be Elliott this season, and have high hopes of him still being able to go really far.
I also realized that KELLIE, TAYLOR, and CHRIS are not as safe as it would seem. There are many talented people and gimicky people who get voted off out of nowhere, over frequent bottom three visitors.
Those Who Left there FIRST visit to Bottom 3: (after the first week obviously)
1. Tamyra 2. Charles 3. Matt 4. JPL 5. Nikko
6. Constantine 7. Mandisa
Could Taylor pull a JPL? Could Chris pull a Constantine? Coule Kellie Pickler pull a Tamyra?
Let's evaluate the TOP FOURS of each season more carefully:
Season One: Nikki (5 visits) Justin (2)
Season Two: Ruben (1) Kim L. (4) Josh (2)
Season Three: Fantasia (2) LaToya (3) Jasmine (4) Diana (4) (Holy Cow!)
Season Four: Bo (2) Anthony (5) Vonzell (4)
These top 4 contestants begin showing up in bottom threes as early as week one and as late as Week 8 for Ruben. Fantasia, a winner, was in the bottom TWO, Week 6 and Week 9. Jasmine was in the bottom three week 4, week 7, week 8, and week 10. Diana was in the bottom three week 2, week 4, week 5, and then did not appear again until she lost to Fantasia. I don't know if this is helping us learn anything, but the fact that these singers are going to continue to grow and grate on us.
This article gave me hope for Elliott, but it also scared me when you see average singers stick around for so long. Kellie Pickler, Ace Young, and Bucky are all nice kids, but they are out of their league and I am hoping Queen week will show that in spades, just like Stevie Wonder week did. In any case, you can make it to third and appear in the bottom three FIVE TIMES!!!! (or just FOUR like the rest of them.)
Also, take a look at how many are doing well for themselves. RJ, Tamyra, Justin, Kelly, Kim Locke, Carmen, Ruben, Josh, Clay, Jennifer, Jim V, Diana, LaToya, Jasmine, Fantasia, George, Nikko, Bo, Constantine, and Carrie have all made some career out of their Idol start.