I don't expect Pickler will be eliminated this soon, no matter what she does. Paris and Elliot will probably have to go first.
My guess as to the order of elimination from here:
6) Elliot
5) Paris
4) Taylor
3) Kellie
2) Katharine
Winner: Chris
Should that be the order? No. But I believe it will be. Elliot and Paris just don't have the fan bases that the others have. Taylor has the largest support but will be the first of the "big 4" to go because, well, that's what Simon wants (see SirLinksAlot's posts on Simon's inability to comprehend how to market him). The Kellie/Katharine battle will be interesting. Kellie has a huge, albeit vapid, fan base. But frankly, she' not nearly as good a singer as Katharine. It's not even close. Couple that with her twin just won last year and that's why I think she'll go home before Katharine. So it will come down to Chris and Katharine in the finals. Given those two, Simon can't lose. I think Chris win's because he will have broader appeal with alternative rock crossing over into the pop charts (Nickelback, Green Day, 3 Doors Down, et al). But Simon would be happy either way.
Just my 2 cent prognostocation.