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More analysis here :

http://www.newsobserver.com/105/story/429286.html

'Idol' watch: And then there were seven Could another North Carolinian prevail?

Danny Hooley, Staff Writer\

No one will be dumbfounded if Chris Daughtry becomes the next "American Idol."

Daughtry, a native of the Triad-area town of McLeansville, is the designated shoo-in to win the fifth season of the TV talent contest. That makes it far more sporting to predict who will fall from the viewing public's grace between now and May 10, when the last three survivors are announced.

Take the week that just passed. Bucky Covington of Rockingham, whose performances always fell short of his down-home charm, was long overdue for elimination. But was it fair for him to get it after his half-decent performance of "Fat Bottomed Girls"? Come on. By comparison, Ace Young's ridiculous rendition of "We Will Rock You" was almost criminal. Covington's exit was his lifetime unachievement award.

All except Daughtry, Kellie Pickler and Taylor Hicks have suffered the indignity of the show's bottom three. The talented Elliott Yamin joined Bucky and Ace this week for having received the fewest viewer votes, which prompted "Idol" judge Randy Jackson to say, "America's a little bit confused." Big-voiced diva Katharine McPhee and teenage soul belter Paris Bennett have found themselves in that humiliating circle in recent weeks.

In a recent USA Today poll, Bennett placed last among females, behind McPhee and Pickler, the other remaining North Carolina contender. McPhee and Pickler both have charisma, sex appeal and vocal presence -- but do they sing at Bennett's level?

Please. Bennett is the show's best singer. So what gives?

With talent just one variable, predictions become brash, based on perceptions of popularity and audience support, with a little something from the gut.

Here, then, are our predictions of how the race will progress. Contestants are listed in the order in which they're expected to finish.

CHRIS DAUGHTRY

Age: 26.

Hometown: McLeansville.

Musical style: Earnest, VH1-friendly hard rock (Creed, Live).

Upside: The boy can sing -- judge Simon Cowell calls it a "recording voice." Daughtry, on hiatus as front man for the band Absent Element, also has the most professional stage chops of any contestant. He has endeared himself to America with his devotion to his wife and stepkids, and the studio audience screams at the mere mention of his name. Last week, he chose an obscure Queen song ("Innuendo") instead of a familiar hit, which perpetuates the idea that he's already an original "artist" before he even proves it with an album of his own.

Downside: His ba-a-a-a-a-a-ad taste in music -- remember when he emoted his way through Creed's excruciating "What if" in late March?

His chances: Bet on him to be North Carolina's second "Idol."

KATHARINE McPHEE

Age: 21.

Hometown: Los Angeles.

Musical style: Mainstream pop with musical theater overtones. It's brassy and sassy when it works.

Upside: At her best, she has a strong vocal presence, and her impish sex appeal works well on Cowell (when he's not ogling Kellie Pickler, that is).

Downside: When she's bad, she's ba-a-a-a-a-a-ad. Her off-key performance of Christina Aguilera's "The Voice Within" last month landed McPhee, a usual audience favorite, in the bottom three.

Her chances: The judges hear a star, but the sound emanating from the TV lately reveals wince-inducing pitch and tone problems on the big showy numbers. But if she can keep up the diva image, she could end up in a showdown with Daughtry.

KELLIE PICKLER

Age: 19

Hometown: Albemarle.

Musical style: She's a little bit country and a little bit ... well, she's country.

Upside: She's sweet offstage and sassy on -- Cowell once called her "a naughty little minx." Brash choices such as Reba McEntire's "Fancy" and Queen's "Bohemian Rhapsody" play up that good-girl-with-a-bad-side sexiness. She also has a poignant back story that includes childhood abandonment by her mother and a father who's serving time in Florida State Prison. And she has a strong contingency of supporters.

Downside: The vacant stare and the ditsy Ellie May banter are gettin' a mite annoying. And her voice thinned out badly on Martina McBride's "How Far."

Her chances: She'll make final three.

TAYLOR HICKS

Age: 29.

Hometown: Birmingham, Ala.

Musical style: Ray Charles, old blues and, we suspect --based on his calypso-y "Not Fade Away" -- beach music.

Upside: He has his own style (albeit borrowed liberally from Joe Cocker), he can sing, his dorky dancing is endearing, and he has good musical taste for an "Idol" contestant. Plus, he's full of surprises -- last week he shot some life back into tired old "Crazy Little Thing Called Love."

Downside: He's too old and too weird for "Idol." Really -- can you imagine this silver-haired singer on MTV?

His chances: The leader of the so-called "Soul Patrol" will head back to 'Bama in about four weeks -- or maybe sooner, if Paris Bennett regains fan favorite status.

PARIS BENNETT

Age: 17.

Hometown: Fayetteville, Ga.

Musical style: Soul, R&B, gospel -- anything that allows her to unleash her powerful pipes.

Upside: She's a born entertainer with chops beyond her tender years. She has it in the genes, too -- Grandma Ann Nesby sang for Sounds of Blackness.

Downside: She's a showoff, which sometimes comes off as the kind of childish precociousness that works nerves.

Her chances: Her early support dwindled in recent weeks, but she may have staged a comeback with her Tina Turner-like rockout on Queen's "The Show Must Go On" last week. Let's figure her for top five at best, and hope for better.

ELLIOTT YAMIN

Age: 27.

Hometown: Richmond, Va.

Musical style: A tasty soul groove.

Upside: He's probably the best overall male singer on the show. And the sight of tears rolling down his cheeks when he sat at the piano next to guest vocal coach Stevie Wonder -- his most obvious singing influence -- showed that his heart is in the right place.

Downside: He lacks Daughtry's eye appeal, and when he's out of his sweet, soulful comfort range (such as when he vibratoed Queen's melodramatic "Somebody to Love" to death), he sounds variety-show corny.

His chances: In a just world, he would make the top trio, but he'll have to settle for an earlier departure, based on two recent showings in the bottom three.

ACE YOUNG

Age: 25.

Hometown: Denver, Colo.

Musical style: Boy-band pseudo-R&B-pop.

Upside: His pretty-boy face matches the boy-band pseudo-R&B-pop style.

Downside: As we used to shout at last season's smarmy Constantine for his creepy, smoldering gaze to the camera: "Stop looking at me like that!"

His chances: Since he made the semifinals, his simpering performances have placed him three times among the week's three potential losers, and the most recent occurrence was this week. Unless he acquires Taylor Hicks' charm or Elliott Yamin's vocal power, he's gone by next week.