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Russell Crowe I think is almost definitely gonna get snubbed this year because of the Phone Fling incident. Contenders have been snubbed for far less in the past. If he does make it in for Best Actor, I think it'll be in the fifth spot, edging out probably Terrence Howard who will also I suspect have problems with vote splitting (between Hustle N Flow and Crash). I'm predicting Howard will get the nom for both though. These are my predictions for the major awards, fwiw, in order of likelihood. I've included the sixth contender who I think is most likely to get in if the fifth doesn't:

Best Picture

Brokeback Mountain
Crash
Good Night & Good Luck
Walk the Line
Capote

Munich

Best Director

Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
George Clooney, Good Night & Good Luck
Paul Haggis, Crash
Steven Spielberg, Munich
David Cronenberg, A History of Violence

Bennett Miller, Capote

Best Actor

Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
David Strathairn, Good Night & Good Luck
Terrence Howard, Hustle N Flow

Russell Crowe, Cinderella Man

Best Actress

Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
Judi Dench, Mrs Henderson Presents
Charlize Theron, North Country
Ziyi Zhang, Memoirs of a Geisha

Keira Knightley, Pride and Prejudice

Best Supporting Actor

Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
George Clooney, Syriana
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
Matt Dillon, Crash
Terrence Howard, Crash

William Hurt, A History of Violence

Best Supporting Actress

Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
Amy Adams, Junebug
Frances McDormand, North Country
Maria Bello, A History of Violence

Catherine Keener, Capote

Best Original Screenplay

Crash
Good Night & Good Luck
The Squid and the Whale
Match Point
Cinderella Man

Syriana

Best Adapted Screenplay

Brokeback Mountain
Capote
A History of Violence
Munich
The Constant Gardener

Walk the Line