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In Europe?

This movie is going to be, if anything, a bigger hit in Europe. Especially once conservatives are through attacking it.

As for the DVD, I imagine it will serve as a sort of totem for "progressives" - a thing to own to show how politically correct they are.

And don't underestimate the number of women who will go to see it simply to see Heath Ledger/Jake Gyllenhaal without their shirts on.

It's sad. But it's a good example of the degeneracy of our culture.

You're not thinking of the market size, though. When people refer to overseas income on movies, they're talking as much about Asia and India, where Hollywood flicks make tons of money, but that's mostly action stuff. Dialogue-heavy movies don't translate so well, pardon the pun. If you lop off those two countries--this will do fine there, maybe, but nothing like an actioner would--you're left with Europe. Three hundred million is not going to come from there alone, especially when the local distribs get their cuts.

(A side note: This movie has FIFTEEN separate entities backing it financially, so there are a lot of folks looking for some of that cash, with lots of cross-deals.)

In Europe it may be a hit but it's just not going to bring in the bucks you're talking about.

People don't buy DVDs just to have them sit around the house as a totem, much as you might want to believe that.

As for Ledger and Gyllenhaal, check out the grosses of their last movies, then tell me how many women are going to see their movies. When it comes to shirt-off movies, you need to hang out with more women ;)--even "progressive" women, while they talk a good liberal game, are turned off by men doing it in movies. They want to pretend they've got a chance with them. It's just not the same as if, say, Angelina Jolie and Jessica Alba were starring in a lesbian story and men were buying the DVD.

As for the degeneracy of our culture, this is more an example of the independent movement in cinema allowing more "niche" marketing. The predecessor to this, believe it or not, would be The Passion, where someone got together a movie and aimed it at a niche as opposed to the "general public" which is becoming more diversified and harder to please.