I told people nearly a year ago that this was going to win Best Picture.
You can usually tell which movie is going to win based upon its politics.
That's how I knew that Million Dollar Baby was going to win last year.
True, but if that were the sole reason Farenheit 9/11 would have been nominated. I mean what were LOTR's politics? Braveheart and Gladiator both won big and they certainly weren't liberal movies in any sense.
I think BM may suffer from backlash. I don't know if the Academy wants to be seen as casting it's lot with the gay agenda. I think it'll get nominated, but I think something else will win.
Actually, Million Dollar Baby--despite its very controversial ending--was actually a well-done movie. If you've read the original short story, it is a downer because in the end, you can feel the serious regret for that unfortunate decision at the end of the story.
I do think that the movie industry better be VERY careful in regards to Brokeback Mountain. If they deliberately politicize the film the backlash from mainstream America could result in a VERY bad box office for 2006, something all the studios in Hollywood don't want.