Mystery of Conflicting Budgets Solved:
Box Office Mojo's "Production" budgets apparently include cost of shooting the film, and reproducing the film onto various prints.
The filming costs for Narnia were $150 million. Softwarecreator, that's what you and I had seen published elsewhere as costs for Narnia. Printing costs for the full release for Narnia's 3800 copies were $30 million,brigning the total production budget up to $180 million.
Figures for Brokeback Mountain are a little more complicated. The film cost $13 million to stage. Apparently, the $30 million total cost was based on a traditionally moderately wide release (I guess around 2,000 theaters?). Then the producers decided to release it more narrowly than originally planned, hence the $18 million budget. The $15 million budget currently being cited is based on the couple-hundred print release the film is currently in. I guess Box Office Mojo's $14 million is still based on the previous 69-theater release? BUt if the movie is going to come close to profitability, it will need the release that would cost $18 million.
So to compare Narnia to Brokeback, it'd make sense to compare either $180 million to $18 million, or $150 million to $13 million. For Narnia to become profitable, it would need worldwide grosses of about $420 million. Again, it's more complicated with Brokeback Mountain. Presuming is onternational release schedule would be a similar receipt:print ratio that is planned for America, and that the American release is about 400 films, Brokeback would need about $60 million to profit. OTOH, if it stays to a narrower American release similar of about 200 theaters, it could make a profit of $36 million.
The profitability figures rules-of-thumb do not include pay-TV contracts, or sales of DVDs. (Oddly, I believe they do include post-release DVD rentals, but I'm not sure if that word means what would commonly be presumed.)
profit of $26 million = profit at $36 million.
Thanks again!