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To: Barney Gumble
You ALMOST make a convincing arguement

Gee... Thanks !

Your chart begins in 1971 with the 2-tiered system, but in people weren't allowed to own gold until 1975, when it was already about $175/ oz.

I have to admit I was not aware of this so I did a little research. President Ford signed the bill authorizing the private ownership of Gold on August 15, 1974. However, legal ownership aside, Gold still outperformed the S&P 500 by 2000% (20x) from 1971 to 1980. Non-US citizens and organizations were allowed to buy Gold and it drove the price up starting in 1971 when Richard Nixon closed the Gold Window. Gold is legal today for private citizens to own and profit from price appreciation.

The second thing is you need to compile both timelines.

Here is the chart of Gold and the S&P 500 going back to 1971. Based on price performance only, without dividends from any stocks re-invested, they are virtually even in performance. Gold was the superior investment from 1971 to roughly 1993 when dividends re-invested in the S&P 500 more than likely would have made up for its underperformance of Gold.

Gold = Green         S&P 500 = Blue

In 2025, 25 years after the March 2000 peak of the Dow, the Dow will be MUCH MUCH higher than its peak of 11722.

I agree by 2025 the DOW will be higher than 11722 but by how much ? And when will it move considerably higher than 11722 ? Will it be next year or 15 years from now? The chart below show the DOW going back to 1929 you can see that the DOW reached a long term peak in 1966 that it did not significantly exceed until 1984. It took 18 years to start a new bull market in the DOW following the previous peak.


47 posted on 12/15/2005 7:45:26 AM PST by simon says what
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To: simon says what
---However, legal ownership aside, Gold still outperformed the S&P 500 by 2000% (20x) from 1971 to 1980.

You really can't count the price of gold when it wasn't legally available. It was $35/oz because it was a fixed mandated price under Bretton Woods. Market forces (from other countries) brought it up quickly to $175. Gold was only doing well when Jimmy Carter let inflation run up to 14% in the late 70s.

---chart of Gold and the S&P 500 going back to 1971. Based on price performance only,...they are virtually even

Again, analysing to 1971 isn't appropriate. Pick any date post 1975, compare it to today, and gold is losing every time. Gold may have short term gains, and may be a okay to have a few grand as "backup" but I wouldn't make it a primary investment. Maybe 2%.

---that the DOW reached a long term peak in 1966 that it did not significantly exceed until 1984.

Obviously no one can predict where the DOW will go, and your stat here is interesting, and it is interesting that those years are bookended by Lyndon Johnson and Carter! However again over the course 20+ years, i wouldn't put a lot of stock in gold.

53 posted on 12/15/2005 11:58:30 AM PST by Barney Gumble (A liberal is someone too broadminded to take his own side in a quarrel - Robert Frost)
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