Posted on 10/13/2005 8:39:03 PM PDT by only1percent
Saturday October 22nd (news black hole) with a Luttig, McConnell or other utterly immaculate pick announced on Monday October 24th.
Reason: Bush needs people back in his corner before the Plame / Wilson grand jury reports at the end of the month. If Rove is indicted while Miers is still the nominee, Bush will really know what loneliness feels like.
Stir the pot;
Stir the pot;
You are looking for a zot.
And you're banned or suspended.
Good catch.
Are we still on this?
Just what is it that anyone thinks is going to happen? I'd like to see the Dow up about 1000 points tomorrow, but that's not going to happen and I don't bet my money that way.
What is likely? Well, start with things that are pretty certain.
1) Senators want to be re-elected.
a) If you're a GOP senator from a very red state, Miers isn't going to lose you your seat and this can be largely a non event for you. So you will bargain for a vote if it looks close enough to matter. Maybe offer a YES in return for money to your state. This is easy in the Gulf area.
b) If you're a GOP senator from a blue state you're likely a RINO. The outcry from the Right has now provided you all the cover you need among your liberal constituents to vote YES on confirmation and earn the fundraising help an Administration can give you and that you always need to win in a state that dislikes GOP anything.
c) If you're a Dem senator from a red state, you have all the cover you need to vote YES on a Bush nominee, which will please the Bush supporters in your state. The hard core right wingers were not going to vote for you anyway so you have no reason not to vote YES.
d) If you're a Dem senator from a blue state, you can do anything you want. A vote NO is a pure anti Bush vote that your constituents will not argue with. A vote YES can be bargained for to get more pork for your state. The Dem senators in c) above will give you the cover you need to make this bargain.
So, that is what looks likely to me. Given competence in the hearings, and given that she will get YES votes from all four categories above, I don't see how she can lose. And given that, why would she withdraw?
That's a good one! :)
"My money is on a Plame/Wilson indictment."
i'll take that bet. while it is part of my wet dreams, it is also delusional. its unfortunate it keeps getting tossed around here as if its even remotely likely.
Outstanding analysis.
He won't be lonely, you will be. This President won't cave to a media hellbent on destroying him at every turn with their phony polls.
The one outside shot is that Brownback and Coburn vote against in committee and the Dems all line up against. She won't be filibustered but I'm surprised that nobody has thought about the chance that she goes down in committee.
Yeah know. This sounds similar to a post on DU. About Rove. Interesting.
That's pretty much it. Bush set up a scenario where the Democrats win big three quarters of the time.
Fine analysis!
At any rate, the ComPost seems to have concluded that Fitzgerald can't be bought by thoughts of immortal fame on the front pages of our newspapers of record. So they want him to go home.
That is just stupid, but sadly some people agree with you but mostly post on DU.
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