Posted on 09/22/2005 4:34:38 AM PDT by Chairman_December_19th_Society
We will not tire, we will not falter, and we will not fail!
Good morning!!
Do not let the victims of the attacks on New York and Washington, nor the brave members of our Nation's military who have given their lives to protect our freedom, die in vain!!
CAT V HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY PACKAGE #19

Discussion:
[NOTE: This analysis is based primarily on data from the Tropical Prediction Center. As my home office is still not set up, independent track and guidance analysis is not possible.]
RITA has likely peaked in intensity. That is the good news.
The bad news is the peak is at 175 MPH, and the storm has now taken a decided turn to the right. NHC advises the track above is to the left (West) of the guidance ensemble, and that Sabine Pass is the more likely target, as opposed to Galveston.
The model runs are on the following graphic:

New Orleans is likely to receive between 3 and 5 inches of rain.
The eastward shift in track guidance is resulting in RITA staying over the Loop Current longer than previously expected. This will keep the storm at its current intensity for the balance of the day.
Further strengthening is unlikely as an eyewall replacement cycle is underway--this phenomenon generally locks a hurricane at a specific intensity, if it doesn't actually weaken, until the process is complete.
RITA is expected to move off the Loop Current prior to landfall.
CURRENT FORECAST ESTIMATES PLACE THE WIND SPEED OF RITA AT LANDFALL AT 150 MPH--THIS IS JUST SHY OF CATEGORY V, BUT STILL STRONGER THAN KATRINA.
The cyclone's central pressure is 897 MB or 26.49" Hg. This makes RITA the third most intense hurricane in history. The diameter of hurricane force winds is 140 miles, while tropical storm winds have a diameter of 370 miles.
RITA is currently about 515 miles SE of Galveston and 615 miles ESE of Corpus Christi.
A HP center over western TX will likely continue steering RITA to the right even after landfall, keeping the system locked in eastern Texas and western Louisiana.
The current strike probabilities are summarized on the graphic that follows:

And a quick snap of Rita from space, in the IR spectrum, with false color enhancement--

Now for this thought...
FULLY 20 PERCENT OF THE UNITED STATES GASOLINE REFINING CAPACITY LIES IN THE PATH OF RITA
For AMERICA - The Right Way, I remain yours in the Cause, the Chairman.
I'm a strong believer in bed rest to let the body heal. Hope tomorrow will bring you that healing, Neets.
Thanks toots...really. (((HUGS))
I am going to do what i did all week.
Monitor my email from home and do what I can and pass along to others what I can't.
Good plan!
"And besides, I never knew Handel was a PETA guy -- I mean, one of his songs goes 'Oh we like sheep'...."
LOL....that's how we "interpreted" it when we did Messiah in college. We also sang "Oh Fortuna, Oh For Salmon" at the beginning of the first movement of Carmina Burana.:)
" I crack me up....;-)) I crack MYSELF up... "
I say tomato...you say tomahto..let's call the whole thing off".;^)
I've been busy all day, then annoyed, depressed, and back to annoyed...
(((Molly)))
I've been stuck on "annoyed.";^)
LOL
I'm betting there was one VERY annoyed orchestra conductor.
(Still trying desperately to get you on the right thread)
Thanks dahlin.
Which works when one can find the "Off" button on the laptop ;-)
And I am a firm believer in bed rest as a work avoidance strategy"
...and I'm a firm believer in bed rest just for the heck of it!!:-)
Wazzat??? You're Bear Bryant???? (Dang, where are my hearing aids...;-))
Did you see anything intersting while you were warping?
I have to go.....a couple more of those pesky students are due to arrive momentarily........
(Speaking of Arlen...anybody else here think that, as he gets older, he sounds more and more like Ed Sullivan??? I almost expect Spector to say, 'We have rilly big shoe for you tonight!'...;-))
Arlen does sound like Ed Sullivan, but I think Sen. Luger looks more like Sullivan.
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