Posted on 09/19/2005 7:21:17 AM PDT by ken5050
Well worth reading..look forward to your comments/observations..Enjoy..regards..
OTOH, we have basicly gotten nothing of value this year from: Schilling, Foulke, Embree, Mantei, and Bellhorn. This team has had to overcome adversity to get here. At least the Yanks have RJ who is on fire. We don't have any pitcher we can totally rely on to be great for us. and, it's not our fault that the Rockies were so giddy to trade away a solid pitcher like Chacon, or that Small would give the Yanks such help. I'm proud of what we've accomplished.
Wells had an incredible start against them in Baltimore earlier, but he says he has physical issues now, so who knows how he'll do. We'll send in DiNardo if Wells is cold today, and Lenny actually did okay in his last start.
Computed????
Tribe last week..6-1... .347 Team BA..17 HRs..
Yeah, I heard the Mike and the Mad Dog clips last year after Game 7. Hilarious.
How I computed my final standings:
Games won + f(r) (calculated wins of remaining games) = total games won.
f(r) (calculated wins of remaining games= (162-r)X ((sqrt (Win percentage X Win percentage last ten games))+ f(e)(%Error of win percentage total)).
f(e)(%Error of win percentage total))= 1.29 X sqrt((Win percentage X Los percentage)/(total games played-1)).
Going back and forth between NESN (Red Sox) and ESPN (Yanks)
(Sunday)
middle of the 5th Yanks TRAIL Jays 3-1
bottom 2nd Sox up 5-2 (Wells gives up back to back HRs.
ESPN said umps of this game has a small strike zone)
Sox fans cheer for Tor. (OK, Blue Jays, let's, play,
ball, as the old SkyDome chant used to go) today but Sox
play them tomorrow...
GIGO
Given the variables involved, might as well just use informed judgement, and besides most guesses, or models, or anthing, are going to be within 1 or 2 W or L of the actual outcome with so few games remaining.
Essentially you "computed" that since the Yankees have a better L10 record, they're going to win the division. That's a valid opinion, but it has nothing to do with computation.
don't get me wrong I am not Yankees fan.
I've been modeling the chances of teams ending the season tied, but that's not heavily dependent on predicting who's going to win how many and who's going to lose. I could change the assumptions I use (70-30 and 50-50) and it wouldn't affect the ultimate answer a whole heck of a lot.
Ambiorix Burgos facing Coco Crisp
You do not have to convince me of the value of great defense.
I don't recall Scotty being that reduced by his injury however. Not mentioned is the great play by the Sox SS, Uribe, and the Center Fielder, Rowland. Both of whom have made fantastic play after fantastic play. And the whole infield has been outstanding defensively. Bruehle and Garland are also at the top of fielding their positions as well. Defense is a great strength of the Sox.
Nice win today.....FYI.. I just posted the new thread...
Randy's numbers are not as bad as everybody thinks -- he's got the identical won-loss record that Pedro has this year (and everybody agrees Pedro has had a fantastic year), but with a run more in the ERA (standard differential between AL and NL.) And Randy has beaten the Red Sox four times already this year, which is nothing to sneeze at.
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