Mike
Then why won't they finance new rigs? Why is there so little actual capital investment right now in domestic (read - high overhead cost) oil drilling capability? If there were really a significant probability of "$100/BBL by next summer" (as the frothers tout) then don't you think that banks would be less stingy about floating loans for new rigs? Instead, the folks who are actually drilling domestically are using 1960s and 70s equipment. And there really are not very many of them - the industry became a skeleton during the 1980s (domestically) and never really grew back very much. If there were tremendous and irrefutable long term price increases sustainable then certainly the domestic industry would be growing and investing much more than it actually is. They are not fools. There are reasons for their skepticism. How old were you in 1982? Can you remember it?