I was this close to running, but decided against it for three reasons.
1. There was one opening and 5 candidates. The incumbent needed to go, and I did not want the "Joe Schwarz" effect of the liberal getting 26% and winning as there's no runoff. That was exactly what happened too. The incumbent won with about 35% with union and admin backing. I could have won a one on one based on anti-incumbent vote, MAYBE one on two with enough money and work, but not 5-1, and that made my decision right there.
2. While I am a lifelong county resident here outside of college, I moved to this district in 2003 from a neighboring district(where the dem won). I don't have the same ties here as I do back home.
3. Money. If I run a race, I go full blast, and estimated that I'd need to raise $10,000 for a position that pays $20 a meeting. Our anti-millage group raised less than $2000(We still won!), and that was a county-wide millage, not district. I'm not independently wealthy enough to pull a Jon Corzine.
You have given very valid reasons for not running.
I commend you for having looked into it so thoroughly.
Start working on it now for the next go-round.