By Earle Eldridge
USA Today
Explosive growth in the number of hybrid gas/electric vehicles manufactured and sold in coming years may strain makers of the expensive battery packs that help power them.
Without expansion of the hybrid battery market, demand for the product could exceed the supply generated in three or four years.
With relatively few hybrid models on the market, the three major suppliers of the batteries — Japan's Panasonic and Sanyo and U.S.-based Cobasys — may have enough production capacity to meet automakers' current plans over the next few years.
But without expansion or more players coming into the market, batteries could be in short supply three or four years from now when more automakers expect to begin selling hybrids.
Even now, suppliers appear unable to quickly add production. Ford Motor has already complained that Sanyo — battery supplier for the hybrid version of the Escape sport utility vehicle — can't build enough batteries. The Escape Hybrid went on sale in September. Ford expects to build 20,000 for the 2005 model year but would like to build more.
Ford is in talks with Sanyo about boosting production. It also is talking with other hybrid battery makers to get more supply.
Sanyo officials in Detroit said they could not talk about their production plans because of contract agreements with Ford.
Automakers hope that the growing popularity of hybrids will entice other companies to build the battery packs, increasing competition and ultimately reducing the price, which now can run as high as $5,000.
That added competition is likely, says Brion D. Tanous, an equity research analyst at Merriman Curhan Ford & Co. in San Francisco. "Over the next three to six months, you will see a flurry of announcements of what battery companies have design contracts and what hybrid vehicles are coming from the automakers," he says.
Hybrid vehicle designs vary. But all use an electric motor, powered by a battery pack, to aid the gasoline engine. Energy generated when the brakes are applied recharges the battery.
The electric/gas combination — some foreign designs use diesel — dramatically increases fuel economy and reduces tailpipe emissions.
Hybrid batteries are made of nickel-metal hydride, rather than the lead used for non-hybrid car batteries. The nickel-metal hydride batteries can hold twice as much energy as lead batteries, have a longer life cycle and require no maintenance; the materials in them and are far less toxic than regular car batteries. But they can be heavy and bulky, so battery makers are searching for ways of making them lighter yet more powerful.
Toyota and Honda have been the early players in the hybrid market. Honda was the first automaker to introduce a hybrid in the USA when it launched Insight, a small two-seater, in December 1999.
J.D. Power and Associates estimates that by 2007, about 410,000 hybrid vehicles will be sold in the USA, up from an estimated 70,000 this year and about 47,500 in 2003.
By 2011, about 35 hybrid models will be on the market, predicts Anthony Pratt, a forecaster for J.D. Power. "There will be hybrids in every segment."
Other battery makers will help meet the increasing demand when they complete the vigorous testing required of battery packs, says Bob Stempel, former CEO of General Motors who is now CEO of Energy Conversion Devices. ECD and Chevron/Texaco own Cobasys in a 50/50 joint venture.
"The automakers want a year's worth of testing before they put it in their vehicles" he says.
Toyota, which builds the popular Prius hybrid, announced that it will increase production of the sedan from about 50,000 this year to 100,000 next year. Currently, customers can face a two-month wait to get a Prius. Toyota gets its hybrid batteries from Panasonic, which was able to increase production to meet the demand, says Nancy Hubbell, a Toyota spokeswoman.
Honda, which sells a Civic Hybrid along with Insight, will launch a hybrid version of its Accord on Dec. 10.
Honda plans to sell 20,000 Accord hybrids a year, partly because it is sure it can get 20,000 batteries from Sanyo, its hybrid battery supplier for Accord. Civic and Insight hybrid batteries come from Panasonic.
The Accord is one of the most popular cars in the United States, with about 400,000 sold annually. "From our experience with hybrids, we think 20,000 is a realistic sales goal" for the hybrid version, says Chris Naughton, a Honda spokesman.
Besides increasing hybrid models and sales, another problem could threaten the future supply of batteries.
As cell phone companies begin updating the backup generators at their towers, they may move to nickel-metal hydride batteries for the same reason automakers turned to them for hybrid cars. Most cell towers currently rely on several lead batteries stored in a shed near the tower for power during blackouts.
This story was first posted Nov. 21, 2004, on usatoday.com, one of 170-plus online affiliates of cars.com.
"without expansion or more players coming into the market, batteries could be in short supply three or four years from now..."
Not to mention the US power grid overloads which would result if there were a massive switch to "battery-powered" cars.