Bingaman, Jeff , NM - probably safe, but depends on who Republicans run against him.
He's safe. Even with the right R, it's the lightest red state, and he's fairly popular.
Byrd, Robert , WV - safe
True, but we might win the seat if he retires, which I don't expect.
Cantwell, Maria , WA - safe
Potentially vulnerable. I live in Washington, and the recent governor's election might have soured folks enough on the D's that we might have a chance with the right candidate. I know the White House has been doing recruiting work for this race, they think it's doable. I'm cautiously pessimistic, but it isn't completley safe.
Carper, Thomas , DE - safe
Yes, unless the lone Rep from Delaware runs, he's an R, and could win. That said, he's shown no signs that he wants to run.
Clinton, Hillary , NY - Possible pickup, but depends on who Republicans run against her. If Guiliani, he wins easily. If Pataki, may be close. I don't have a good read on how NYers feel about Pataki.
Pataki would lose. Giuliani would win, but he doesn't seem to want to run unforunately. I really wish he would run for either Governor or Senate in '06, but I'm afraid he wants to go for President, and as much as I admire the man, I wouldn't be able to vote for him in the primary.
Conrad, Kent , ND - probably safe, but depends on who Republicans run against him.
Not safe at all. Governor John Hoeven is almost certainly running, and he just won his last election with 70% of the vote if I'm not mistaken. Look for this to be very competative, especially if Conrad votes for fillibusters.
Corzine, Jon , NJ - safe
Yes, but he's running for Governor. Assuming he wins that, who knows? Maybe he'll appoint Torecelli! :)
Dayton, Mark , MN - possible pickup, he is quite whacky apparently. As always it depends on who Republicans run against him.
He's not running again, and Rep. Mark Kennedy, who has won 3 VERY difficult elections to the house in two almost completley different districts, is running for the open seat. This is easily our biggest hope of a pickup in a blue state.
Feinstein, Dianne , CA - safe
Yes, if she runs. It's potentially competetive if she doesn't, but I doubt she'll retire, and I doubt it'll be competative even if she does, but it's not impossible. In a perfect world, she runs again, and then in 6 years, Arnold runs!
Kennedy, Edward , MA - safe
Yep.
Kohl, Herb , WI - probably safe, but depends on who Republicans run against him.
He's safe if he runs, no strong R will run against him. There are rumors of retirement, and Thommy Thompson might run if he doesn't.
Lieberman, Joseph , CN - safe
Yep, totally safe in the general. I am wondering if some credible D will run in the primary though.
Nelson, Ben , NE - probably safe, he usually stays fairly conservative.
He wouldn't be safe, but Bush appointed Mike Johanns to Sec. of Ag., and Tom Osborn doesn't seem to want to run. Either would have a strong chance against him.
Nelson, Bill , FL - probably safe, but not sure who Republicans have to run against him
Not safe at all. He only got 51% in 2000, and there are a bunch of potential candidates. If W can talk his brother into running, Jeb will SMASH him. Kathryn Harris, either of the Diaz-Bartlet brothers could win, as well as the state AG, and several others. His approval ratings are halfway decent, but his re-elect numbers are pathetic.
Sarbanes, Paul , MD - safe
Yes, but, again, he's old and may retire. If he does, and Mike Steele runs, we will have a race on our hands.
Stabenow, Debbie , MI - safe
Not even remotely with the right candidate. Candice Miller, former Secretary of State and current congresswoman would be a great challenger, but it looks like she's not running. John Engler would also make a strong challenger, but has shown no signs of wanting to run. If either of them change their mind, this will be a very competative race. Even if they don't, there are other challengers that could present a problem. Wait and see on this one.