Replies

I think the Democrats reached the limits of their turnout. It would be very difficult to match those numbers with the same passion (uh, well, pathological hatred) as before. I think one myth that exploded on Tuesday was the nature of who does not vote in American elections. Rove harped on that 4 million Evangelical number--that number was seriously lowballed.

Also, the increase for Kerry still did not improve his numbers in comparision to Gore in many blue states--particularly in the battlegrounds. Indeed, the only states where his numbers improved were due to the "New Austin" areas of Oregon, the Sea-Tac area and Vermont, which is becoming a New Age enclave. In Nevada and North Carolina GOP numbers dropped, again, because of remarkable turnout from the college-town and union enclaves. Still was not enough.

The upper midwest remained incredibly close. In order for future Democrats to win state-wide elections in those states they may have to maintain the current 2004 model. It is more likely the GOP will continue its model and possibly expand upon it.

I believe the Democrats have lost the economic argument, the only issue with which they can make inroads into these new voters (or emerging constituancies). Only an economic downturn could do it, but campaigning on negatives haven't won elections for Democrats lately, obviously.

So, for the next two years, the Democrats face a choice between reassessment or resistance. The latter route portends disaster. There is no reason to assume Kerry's vaunted 5 million new voters will be around for mid-terms.

There is every reason to believe Bush's 11 million shall be.