Once upon a time, I had the 10% rule. It worked like clockwork. If the Pubbie won Indiana by more than 10%, then the Pubbie would carry the popular vote. It worked election after election, like clockwork, until the cultural issue thingie raised its ugly head. Now it is worthless. Sure, if Bush really surges in Kentucky and Indiana, it might mean something, but probably not much, unless the numbers are really big, which they won't be. We will just have to wait, and see how Ohio trickles in, which is a better indicator of how the Fat Belt will go, pending the Fat Belt itself coming in. Of course, if Bush seems in general to be piling up numbers that suggest at least a 3% lead in the popular vote, than the election is over.
Drudge will be leaking exit polls - but the exit polls turned out to be extremely unreliable in 00 and 02.
One sign to look for is turnout in minority areas. That was the story of 2000... unprecedented black turnout...
Things are supposedly getting close in MI, and Weather.com is forecasting thundershowers for Detroit on election day...