"MANY commentators and pundits check these markets regularly"
Yeah, right.
Why would anyone give a rats ass what a bunch of gamblers thing? If affects no one. No thinking person even pays attention to polls let alone quasi-legal betting.
When was the last time you heard any body say "well better odds before I cast my vote"?
If you're taking a bath in your betting, maybe its your sign to come clean.
You're probably right. This dude's probably lost some serious coin, and to console himself he wants to link it to some vast political conspiracy.
actually, many very serious financial types DO look at those markets regularly....but we're clever enough to see when they're being manipulated, and discount the result appropriately.