From Milwaukee paper from yesterday:
"The Bush campaign disputes that analysis and, just like the Democrats, is trying to boost turnout among its own identified supporters so much that it alters the composition of the electorate. Wisconsin had a high turnout in 2000, and Bush almost won a state that had voted Democratic in 1988, 1992 and 1996.
"I'm hoping for a big turnout. I don't think a big turnout necessarily helps the Democrats," says Matthew Dowd, the Bush campaign's chief strategist.
Dowd says he expects the national vote to set records for raw numbers (although not for turnout percentage), rising from 105 million in 2000 to 115 million or even 118 million on Nov. 2...
Based on high voter interest, huge mobilization programs and his view that "George Bush's presidency is a lightning rod," Gans expects the national turnout rate to match or exceed 1992, when it was 55% of voting-age adults.
In Wisconsin, both sides are doing far more organizationally than they did in 2000. Kennedy says there's plenty of anecdotal evidence already for a rise in turnout, from trends in early voting to new registrations - even overseas voting.
"We've got people who left Wisconsin to live overseas. They never bothered to vote in the last 20 years, and now they want to vote," says Kennedy...
Gans believes that a higher turnout favors Democrats, based on the notion that "there's a limited number of incremental voters that the Republicans can get."
Many Democrats agree. The theory: Because some Democratic-leaning groups (African-Americans, Hispanics, low-income voters, single people) tend to vote at lower rates, the Democratic vote has more potential to grow in a high-interest election. Party strategists are touting the possibility of a surge in young voters on and off campus Nov. 2, a development they think would boost Kerry.
"It's always been true and continues to be true. The fact to look for is the size of the turnout," says Gov. Doyle. "The bigger the turnout, the better it is for Democrats."
But the Bush campaign believes its own vote is expandable - that in 2000, turnout among some conservative segments, including evangelical Christians, was not as high as it could have been.
Darrin Schmitz, executive director of the state GOP, says Republicans believe that as many as "200,000 social conservatives" in Wisconsin stayed away from the polls four years ago. He says the Bush campaign's intense outreach to conservative churchgoers, hunters and other targeted groups means "we can certainly compete in the turnout game with the Democrats."
"We haven't seen a 70 percent-plus turnout since 1960," Schmitz says. "If turnout is as high as some people predict, conventional wisdom gets tossed out the window."
Mostly negative, but some hope from Republicans and Dems hinging their hopes on a high turnout only.
Keep in mind Kerry is losing a good portion of support from African-Americans to Bush.
http://www.jsonline.com/news/state/oct04/269190.asp
From NJ.....
"State Democrats and Republicans are putting the final touches on their get-out-the-vote - or what politicos like to call GOTV - effort.
"We'll have the phone banks and the literature, and we're moving money to county and local organizations," said Assemblywoman Bonnie Watson Coleman, D-Ewing, chairwoman of the Democratic State Committee, which has about $500,000 for GOTV activities.
Brian Callanan, spokesman for the state Republican Party, said the GOP has about 21,000 volunteers for Election Day and $300,000 from the Republican National Committee. The GOP committee has an advertisement on its Web site offering $75 for people to do street work on Election Day.
"We'll be out in force throughout the state getting people to vote the entire Republican ticket from top to bottom," Callanan said.
But for the parties, the difference this year from past elections is that under new campaign finance law, GOTV efforts funded by either state or county party organizations cannot mention either Bush or Kerry. As a result, some congressional campaigns are helping fund county GOTV efforts.
"We're doing that because we can mention Kerry's name and the county organizations can't," said Paul Penna, campaign manager for Rep. Rush Holt, D-Hopewell Township.
Holt's organization is helping pay for the Mercer County Democratic Party's effort.
"We're doing some phone banks to call people, but the crux of our program is a program on Election Day to get people we have identified as Holt supporters or likely supporters to the polls," Penna said.
While the political parties are solidifying their plans, much of the voter efforts on Election Day won't be officially connected to partisan politics. Black churches throughout the state, for instance, are gearing up to get people to the polls.
"We are telling our congregants to make sure they vote and to bring a friend or a neighbor who is not a member of the church to vote with them," said the Rev. Reginald Jackson, executive director of the Black Ministers Council of New Jersey, which has endorsed Kerry.-- -- -- The Rev. Stanley Justice, pastor at the Mount Zion AME Church in Trenton, said he has been preaching for months on the need for people to vote.
"We recognize the importance of this election and we as clergy are doing what we can to make sure that our people exercise their right," Justice said.
Black churches throughout the state are being asked to distribute voter guides that list policy positions for both Kerry and Bush but don't make recommendations on a candidate.
The churches also will provide transportation for voters who need rides to the polls on Election Day and stress to voters the importance of carrying proper credentials.
Jackson said he would like to see at least 70 percent of New Jersey's estimated 500,000 black voters go to the polls.
The Mercer County Central Labor Council, which represents local AFL-CIO unions, will base Election Day operations at the Colonial Firehouse in Hamilton, where 400 to 600 people will begin working at 1 p.m. that day, Maloney said. The council has endorsed the Kerry-Edwards Democratic presidential ticket, Democratic Freeholders Anthony Carabelli and Keith Hamilton, Ewing Democratic Councilman Burt Steinmann and Reps. Chris Smith, R- Hamilton, and Holt.
Maloney said union members will spread out across the county, supporting the endorsed candidates by knocking on doors and making sure people have voted.
"We're going to visit union brothers and sisters," Maloney said. "We're hoping that Kerry carries the state, which he should. We're going to make sure of that."-- -- --
The state Sierra Club chapter plans to do the same. It also supports Kerry-Edwards.
"This is the most important election ever when it comes to the environment," Tittel said. "The reason I say that is this is the first president who has gone out and actively weakened the environment and not had any major environmental initiatives."
Tittel said the Sierra Club will send volunteers on Election Day to talk to people on the streets and outside polling places. Some, he said, will walk door-to-door, while others will team with Democratic organizations.
Yet New Jersey won't be getting all the attention because Pennsylvania is considered more of a swing state. Both campaigns have concentrated on winning Pennsylvania, and Tittel said the Sierra Club has been sending 50 to 100 people to Pennsylvania on weekends. Maloney said his organization also has sent people to Pennsylvania.
Juan Melli-Huber, a Princeton University graduate student and organizer of Mercer County Democracy for America, part of the organization formed by former Democratic presidential hopeful Howard Dean, said members have been advised either to help county Democrats or to head to Pennsylvania. He said group members have been going to Pennsylvania for about two months, working with another pro-Kerry advocacy group, America Coming Together.
"With the election four years ago, they realize the get-out-the-vote effort is real important," said Melli-Huber, who said his group has a mailing list of more than 1,000 people and monthly meetings that attract 40 to 50 people.
While some push for Kerry-Edwards, others work for the Bush-Cheney ticket, though the Republicans seem to lack support from as many organized special interest groups as the Democrats.
Marie Tasy, New Jersey Right To Life executive director, said group volunteers will be involved in numerous activities on Election Day. She declined to discuss details but mentioned phone banks and literature distribution.
"We definitely believe that New Jersey is winnable for President Bush," Tasy said.-- -- --
Rich Miller, of the Coalition of New Jersey Sportsmen, which supports gun rights, said individual clubs have their own plans, but the statewide group plans a mailing to "a couple hundred thousand" homes. The mailing, he said, will carry a simple message: "Vote for Bush."
Miller said the National Rifle Association, an influential political action organization that typically supports Republicans, doesn't plan major activity in New Jersey, but he said he's confident the coalition's campaign efforts can prove decisive "if everybody votes that we mail to."
http://www.nj.com/news/times/index.ssf?/base/news-2/1098605231304840.xml