Battle Ground States, (are they sliding to Kerry?)

Gallup, Rassmussen, etc.. | 10/18/2004 | Self

[snarkytart]

Was there exited polling for the early voting that can show a trend???

[orangelobster]

"Was there exited polling for the early voting that can show a trend???"

I haven't seen any yet. I haven't been able to figure out how they are maintaining the votes. Hopefully no one has access to any records until november. I don't trust anyone in florida or ohio this time.

[Clump]

Here is my analysis from another thread on this topic.

I have been somewhat mystified the last couple of days over some state polls I have seen. But after some objective analysis I have come to some conclusions. Here are the things we can look at to get a feeling of how the race is shaping up.

1. The national polls are trending Bush.

2. Some swing state polls are showing momentum for Kerry at the same time.

3. Bush is campaigning in winnable blue states, and Kerry is jumping on the old scare the old people and race bait the minorities tactic.

OK, so what does this all mean? It means you either think Bush is losing, and that the national polls are wrong. Or you believe (erroneously) that he could win the PV by 3 or 4 points, and he could lose the EV at the same time. If you believe either one of those then you have to believe the Bush team has run the dumbest and worst campaign in history. They would have to be in utter loser denial by running hard in New Jersey. You also have to believe that Kerry doesn't know he is in the driver's seat. He is not acting and campaigning like a person set for victory. He is having to shore up support and rally groups that Democrats are usually able to take for granted by this point. Also, you do not see him spending time and money in Missouri, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, or North Carolina. If he was in the driver seat you would see him putting on the squeeze in these states. He is not.

I don't believe either one of those things. Based on my perception of pollsters, and my observations of the candidates, I believe Bush is headed to victory. Pollsters like Survey USA want two things. Money and credibility. Money comes through a perceived horse race. Credibility comes through getting it right on election day. These two goals often conflict. By making the race too close to call now, they do themselves a service on both fronts. They get to do one or two more polls on the state, and they have the opportunity to get it right (the best they can).

My prediction is that you will see groups like SUSA and others start to show Bush with momentum and modest leads in the swing states within the next week. They know the old saying that as the country goes, so go the swing states. When it is all said and done they will just explain that Bush had a nice surge down the stretch. That way they milked their clients for what they are worth, and they got close. Everybody wins (except the clients), especially Bush, and thus the Republic.

BTW, when Kerry (won) the first debate and he enjoyed somewhat of a surge in the national polls, Freepers were quick to point out that the EV and state polls still looked good. I was quietly hoping the state polls would remain stable while we weathered the storm. Inside I knew that national momentum always carries over to the states eventually. Well, they did after two weeks. Now I expect that Kerry has topped off and we will see Bush on the up and up. Keep working and praying hard.