Successful and re-elected Governor of Florida. Sounds like good credentials to me.
Yeah, he'd carry Florida but the question is whether or not the rest of the country would have Bush-fatigue.
Though its one of those pointless 'what-ifs'; just consider if Jeb had beaten Chiles in 1994 and became governor the same time W did. Then he would have won a comfortable reelection. Then perhaps it would have been Jeb who was championed by the party establishment because of his higher marks as a speaker and all. Then assuming all else was equal, there would have been no controversy in 2000, and this year all the resources expended in Fl could be used in Ohio, Penn, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, etc...