Well, you've put yourself in a real guessing game with that criteria. In order to attempt to predict future behavior, you must evaluate past behavior. Any politician can go out and promise you the moon, but what have they delivered in the past? I realise the Swift boat stuff seems like it happened 100 years before you were born but his Vietnam record is really all kerry has brought to the table. that's why it has received so much attention. You might look up both mens acceptance speeches. that might be a good place to start.
See their comment to ladyinred here:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1207052/posts?page=22#22