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August 12, 2004 -- Kerry pulls ahead in Florida, Quinnipiac University Poll finds; many concerned about voting machines |
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August 12, 2004 -- Kerry pulls ahead in Florida, Quinnipiac University Poll finds; many concerned about voting machines | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Democratic challenger John Kerry leads President George W. Bush 47 – 41 percent among Florida voters, with 4 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. With Nader out of the race, Sen. Kerry leads President Bush 49 – 42 percent. Bush and Kerry were locked in a 43 – 43 percent dead heat, with 5 percent for Nader, in a June 29 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University. Florida voters disapprove of the job President Bush is doing 54 – 44 percent, compared to a 52 – 46 percent disapproval June 29. Among Bush backers, 78 percent say they are voting pro-Bush, with 18 percent anti-Kerry; 43 percent of Kerry supporters are anti-Bush, with 51 percent pro-Kerry. "Sen. Kerry is holding on to a modest bounce from the Democratic convention, with his favorability rating jumping nine points since late June as more Florida voters get to know the Democratic candidate,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “Kerry is seen as the candidate best able to handle the health care issue. The Democrat also is cutting sharply into the perception that the President is the stronger candidate when it comes to dealing with terrorism.” “Most Florida voters say their mind is made up with only 10 or 11 percent on each side saying they could change their mind,” Richards added. Offered four choices on the most important issue in the election:
Asked who would do the best job on these issues, Florida voters said:
Florida voters give Bush a negative 38 – 43 percent favorability rating, with 17 percent mixed. This compares to a split 41 – 42 percent favorability June 29. Kerry gets a 39 – 31 percent favorability rating, with 21 percent mixed and 8 percent who haven’t heard enough to form an opinion. This compares to a split 30 – 33 percent favorability June 29. This year, 97 percent of those surveyed plan to vote and 47 percent of these voters are “very confident” their vote for President will be counted correctly, including 52 percent of white voters, 30 percent of black voters and 39 percent of Hispanic voters. Only 21 percent of voters are “very confident” in the new touch screen voting machines. Sixteen percent of voters plan to cast absentee ballots, with 43 percent of this group using a paper ballot because they distrust the voting system. From August 5 - 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,094 Florida registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and the nation as a public service and for research.
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jeb Bush is handling his job as
Governor?
App Dis DK/NA
Aug 12, 2004 45 44 11
Jun 29, 2004 47 42 12
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling
its job?
App Dis DK/NA
Aug 12, 2004 41 42 18
Jun 29, 2004 39 42 18
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job
as United States Senator?
App Dis DK/NA
Aug 12, 2004 42 18 40
Jun 29, 2004 48 16 36
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Graham is handling his job
as United States Senator?
App Dis DK/NA
Aug 12, 2004 56 21 23
Jun 29, 2004 58 21 21
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his
job as President?
App Dis DK/NA
Aug 12, 2004 44 54 3
Jun 29, 2004 46 52 2
TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates
were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom
would you vote?
JK GWB SmnEls Wld'tVt DK/NA
Aug 12, 2004 49 42 1 1 7
Jun 29, 2004 46 44 1 1 8
TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates
were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader
the Independent for whom would you vote?
JK GWB RN SmnEls Wld'tVt DK/NA
Aug 12, 2004 47 41 4 - 1 6
Jun 29, 2004 43 43 5 1 1 8
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jeb Bush is handling his job as
Governor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Approve 45% 82% 19% 39% 50% 41%
Disapprove 44 11 71 47 40 47
DK/NA 11 7 10 13 10 11
2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling
its job?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Approve 41% 63% 26% 35% 49% 34%
Disapprove 42 19 59 46 37 46
DK/NA 18 19 15 19 14 21
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job
as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Approve 42% 39% 47% 39% 43% 42%
Disapprove 18 23 14 16 18 18
DK/NA 40 39 39 45 40 41
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Graham is handling his job as
United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Approve 56% 44% 69% 54% 54% 57%
Disapprove 21 34 11 18 23 19
DK/NA 23 21 20 28 22 24
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job
as President?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Approve 44% 86% 12% 37% 48% 41%
Disapprove 54 13 85 59 50 56
DK/NA 3 1 3 4 2 3
Wht Blk Hisp
Approve 52% 5% 41%
Disapprove 46 91 58
DK/NA 3 5 1
6. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for
President -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
A lot 56% 56% 60% 51% 57% 55%
Some 29 27 30 32 27 30
Only a little 11 13 8 13 12 11
None at all 3 4 3 3 3 4
DK/NA - - - 2 1 -
7. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates
were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom
would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Kerry 49% 9% 86% 51% 46% 52%
Bush 42 87 9 34 46 38
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 2 1 1 1
DK/NA 7 3 3 12 7 7
Wht Blk Hisp
Kerry 42% 87% 57%
Bush 50 3 37
SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1
DK/NA 7 8 3
8. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates
were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader
the Independent for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Kerry 47% 9% 84% 46% 43% 50%
Bush 41 86 9 32 45 38
Nader 4 2 2 10 4 4
SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 1 -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 -
DK/NA 6 3 4 10 6 7
Wht Blk Hisp
Kerry 40% 86% 55%
Bush 49 3 35
Nader 4 2 7
SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - -
DK/NA 6 8 3
9. (If candidate choice q8) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might
change your mind before the election?
CANDIDATE CHOICE Q8
Kerry Bush
Tot Vtrs Vtrs
Made up 87% 89% 87%
Might change 12 10 11
DK/NA 1 1 2
10a. (If Kerry voter q8) Is your vote more for Kerry or more against Bush?
Kerry
Voters
For Kerry 51%
Against Bush 43
DK/NA 6
10b. (If Bush voter q8) Is your vote more for Bush or more against Kerry?
Bush
Voters
For Bush 78%
Against Kerry 18
DK/NA 4
11. Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't
you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Favorable 38% 76% 10% 30% 40% 36%
Unfavorable 43 8 73 46 42 45
Mixed 17 15 15 21 17 17
Hvn't hrd enough 2 1 2 2 1 2
REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1
Wht Blk Hisp
Favorable 44% 5% 35%
Unfavorable 37 70 50
Mixed 17 16 14
Hvn't hrd enough 1 8 -
REFUSED 1 - 1
12. Is your opinion of John Kerry favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't
you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Favorable 39% 9% 69% 37% 35% 43%
Unfavorable 31 66 5 25 34 29
Mixed 21 18 16 29 22 20
Hvn't hrd enough 8 6 9 9 8 7
REFUSED 1 2 1 - 1 1
12. (cont’d) Is your opinion of John Kerry favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or
haven't you heard enough about him?
Wht Blk Hisp
Favorable 32% 70% 45%
Unfavorable 38 3 25
Mixed 21 15 25
Hvn't hrd enough 8 11 4
REFUSED 1 1 1
13. Is your opinion of Ralph Nader favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't
you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Favorable 12% 9% 12% 18% 14% 11%
Unfavorable 25 24 26 24 30 21
Mixed 17 20 17 12 18 17
Hvn't hrd enough 43 44 42 44 36 49
REFUSED 3 4 3 1 2 3
14. Is your opinion of Dick Cheney favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't
you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Favorable 31% 66% 7% 24% 35% 28%
Unfavorable 36 8 56 40 37 34
Mixed 18 14 19 22 17 19
Hvn't hrd enough 14 11 17 15 11 17
REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 1
15. Is your opinion of John Edwards favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't
you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Favorable 35% 8% 56% 41% 31% 38%
Unfavorable 16 34 3 10 17 15
Mixed 15 19 10 17 13 16
Hvn't hrd enough 33 37 30 31 37 29
REFUSED 1 1 1 2 2 1
16. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in
the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat
dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Very satisfied 10% 24% 2% 6% 10% 10%
Smwht satisfied 35 57 16 33 40 30
Smwht dissatisfied 27 11 39 30 24 30
Very dissatisfied 27 8 42 30 26 29
DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1
17. If you had to choose, which of the following issues will be most important
to your vote for president - the economy, the situation in Iraq, terrorism or
health care?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Economy 30% 22% 31% 35% 35% 25%
Iraq 18 13 21 18 16 19
Terrorism 23 41 14 15 25 21
Health care 22 17 29 21 16 27
DK/NA 8 7 5 11 8 7
18. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better
job on the economy, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Bush 39% 80% 9% 32% 43% 36%
Kerry 52 14 86 53 49 54
DK/NA 9 6 5 15 8 10
19. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better
job on the situation in Iraq, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Bush 48% 86% 14% 47% 53% 43%
Kerry 45 11 80 42 41 49
DK/NA 7 3 7 11 6 9
20. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better
job on terrorism, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Bush 50% 88% 16% 48% 55% 45%
Kerry 41 8 74 38 37 45
DK/NA 9 4 10 14 7 11
21. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better
job on health care, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Bush 31% 65% 5% 26% 32% 30%
Kerry 59 22 90 64 61 58
DK/NA 10 14 5 10 8 12
22. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United
States to do or the wrong thing?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Right thing 45% 82% 21% 35% 51% 41%
Wrong thing 49 14 73 57 45 52
DK/NA 6 5 6 7 4 7
23. Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as:
Excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Excellent 3% 7% - 1% 3% 3%
Good 38 64 18 35 42 35
Not so good 37 23 45 40 37 37
Poor 21 5 35 23 18 24
DK/NA 1 1 1 1 - 2
24. Did you vote for President in 2000, did something prevent you from voting,
or did you choose not to vote for President in 2000?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Voted 82% 87% 81% 79% 81% 82%
Didn't vote 14 9 16 17 13 15
COULDN'T/INELIGIBLE(VOL) 4 4 3 5 5 3
DK/NA - - - - - -
Wht Blk Hisp
Voted 85% 74% 73%
Didn't vote 12 20 22
COULDN'T/INELIGIBLE(VOL) 3 6 6
DK/NA - - -
25. (If voted q24) How confident are you that your vote in the 2000 presidential
election in Florida was counted correctly - very confident, somewhat confident,
not too confident or not confident at all?
VOTED FOR PRESIDENT 2000 Q24...............
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Very confident 42% 70% 22% 32% 45% 39%
Somewhat confident 17 17 19 15 16 18
Not too confident 14 3 22 18 13 14
Not confident at all 21 2 33 29 18 23
DK/NA 6 8 4 7 7 6
Wht Blk Hisp*
Very confident 48% 20% 30%
Somewhat confident 18 8 25
Not too confident 12 22 19
Not confident at all 16 46 22
DK/NA 7 4 3
(* NOTE: Number of respondents is 75 or less in the Hispanic subgroup.
Additional caution should be taken when interpreting the findings of this
subgroup because of the larger margin of error.)
26. Are you planning to vote in the 2004 presidential election?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Yes 97% 98% 98% 95% 97% 98%
No 1 1 - 3 1 1
DK/NA 2 2 1 3 2 1
Wht Blk Hisp
Yes 97% 100% 96%
No 1 - -
DK/NA 2 - 4
27. (If planning to vote q26) How confident are you that your vote in the 2004
presidential election in Florida will be counted correctly - very confident,
somewhat confident, not too confident or not confident at all?
PLANNING TO VOTE FOR PRESIDENT 2004 Q26....
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Very confident 47% 73% 33% 38% 50% 45%
Somewhat confident 33 23 41 35 34 33
Not too confident 14 3 20 18 12 15
Not confident at all 5 - 6 8 3 6
DK/NA 1 2 1 1 1 1
Wht Blk Hisp
Very confident 52% 30% 39%
Somewhat confident 31 42 39
Not too confident 11 22 16
Not confident at all 4 6 4
DK/NA 1 - 2
28. How confident are you that the new touch screen voting machines introduced
in some areas of the state will solve the voting problems that occurred in
Florida in the 2000 election - very confident, somewhat confident, not too
confident or not confident at all?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Very confident 21% 32% 13% 18% 18% 23%
Somewhat confident 43 44 45 39 44 42
Not too confident 18 10 23 21 19 17
Not confident at all 12 5 13 17 12 11
DK/NA 7 8 6 6 7 7
Wht Blk Hisp
Very confident 23% 12% 15%
Somewhat confident 42 48 43
Not too confident 16 25 24
Not confident at all 11 11 11
DK/NA 7 4 8
29. (If planning to vote q26) Do you intend to vote by absentee ballot in the
2004 presidential election?
PLANNING TO VOTE FOR PRESIDENT 2004 Q26....
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Yes 16% 11% 18% 20% 16% 16%
No 79 86 75 76 81 78
DK/NA 5 3 7 4 3 6
Wht Blk Hisp
Yes 11% 29% 24%
No 85 63 72
DK/NA 4 8 4
30. (If voting absentee q29) Are you casting an absentee ballot because you are
unable to get to the polls on election day or because you don't trust the voting
system?
Absentee
Voters q29
Can't get to polls 47%
Don't trust system 43
DK/NA 10
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