Very interesting comments. Any recommended reading on any of that?
On the a-bomb schedule, another interesting thing I've read is an argument that Werner Heisenberg sabotaged the Nazis' a-bomb program, otherwise they might've had one before we did. Japan was also close to getting one, according to this book I got recently but haven't had a chance to finish yet (Philip Henshall, "The Nuclear Axis: Germany, Japan and the Atom Bomb Race, 1939-1945").
On the Soviets' European plans, Anthony Cave Brown's "Dropshot" is really interesting. It records that after the Soviets dropped their first a-bomb in 1949, the Pentagon did a study assessing the threat and possible responses. A pre-emptive strike was considered by Sec. Defense Louis Johnson but ruled out, and instead a war plan was drawn up for the contingency of a Soviet first strike. The wargame scenario was premised on the assumption that war would break out by about 1957 (a date chosen somewhat arbitrarily but based on estimates of anticipated advancements in the Soviet nuclear program); however in real-time the goal was for US forces to be combat-ready by 1950. Based on wargame calculations, the Dropshot planners concluded we needed more strategic air build-up in order to sustain the logistics of a sufficient bombing campaign. The conclusion was that, "In the event of war in 1950, the Air Force can a) complete the atomic phase of the planned strategic air offensive b) provide inadequate air defense for the United States and Canada c) initiate mobilization and training." The Air Force could not "a) complete the entire air offensive called for or b) provide the air defense for the United States and Alaska with the maximum risk we can afford to take."
Meant to include you on 859.
I have often wondered what would have happened, given one mere change to WWII: that is, that Hitler had not invaded Russia, and instead had (more wisely) decided to take out Britain first.
He would have won, and he probably would have been able to keep most of europe and north africa and the middle east.
The mind boggles at how the 20th century would have been different.
Years ago, I picked up a book in the remainder bin that claimed that Japan built and tested a fission "device" before we did. Japanese nuclear scientists had a lot more on the ball than the Germans did. They had uranium mines in northern Korea, and built separation plants, according to the author. (The book, BTW, is buried somewhere in my older stack of books in the basement).
According to the book, the set off a multi-kiloton test device in the hills of northern Korea. They had no plans to "weaponize" it, but planned on putting one in a freighter in Tokyo bay to take out the American invasion fleet.
They realized that even that wouldn't save them, so much of the data was destroyed, as they tried to do with their biological warfare program. But one of their top scientists lived well into his 80s, and started telling his story in the 1970s.
The author quoted a DoD news release from MacArthur's early push into North Korea, where they announced the capture by the US Army of a Japanese uranium enrichment plant. The next day, it became a "Russian" facility.
I rated the book, at the time, of a "hmmmm....". A bit more believable than UFO stories, but possibly just an extapolation of what little is available for us to know.