Peak Oil Production, necessary conservation, and alternative necessary energy production sources

Various

[combat_boots]

It is the world, not just America, that is junked up on oil -- a supply now possibly a long-term target of the Al Qaeda. Yet most of this vital product passes through choke points whose security is ultimately guaranteed primarily by the American taxpayer. This list of world oil chokepoints illustrates the situation.

Location	Barrels per day
Bab el-Mandab	Location: Djibouti/Eritrea/Yemen; connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea Oil Flows (2000E): 3.2-3.3 million bbl/d Destination of Oil Exports: Europe, United States, Asia
Bosporus/Turkish Straits	Location: Turkey; this 17-mile long waterway divides Asia from Europe and connects the Black Sea with the Mediterranean Sea Oil Flows (2003E): 3.0 million bbl/d (nearly all southbound; mostly crude oil with several hundred thousand barrels per day of products as well) Destination of Oil Exports: Western and Southern Europe
Russian Oil and Gas Export Pipelines/Ports	Location: Russian oil and gas exports transit via pipelines that pass through Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Poland, Major Oil Export Ports: Novorossiisk (Russia -- Black Sea); Primorsk (Russia -- Baltic Sea/Gulf of Finland); Tuapse (Russia); Ventspils (Latvia); Odessa (Ukraine) Major Oil Pipelines (capacity, 2003E): Druzhba (1.2 million bbl/d); Baltic Pipeline System/Primorsk (840,000 bbl/d) Major Natural Gas Pipelines (capacity, 2003E): Brotherhood, Progress, and Union (1 trillion cubic feet -- tcf -- capacity each); Northern Lights (0.8 tcf); Volga/Urals-Vyborg, Finland (0.1 tcf). Yamal (to Europe, via Belarus; 1.0 Tcf, partly operational); Blue Stream (to Turkey via Black Sea; 0.56 Tcf, construction completed in October 2002) Destination of Oil and Gas Exports: Eastern Europe, Netherlands, Italy, Germany, France, other Western Europe.
Strait of Hormuz	Location: Oman/Iran; connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea Oil Flows (2003E): 15-15.5 million bbl/d Destination of Oil Exports: Japan, United States, Western Europe
Strait of Malacca	Location: Malaysia/Singapore; connects the Indian Ocean with the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean. Oil Flows (2003E): 11 million bbl/d Destination of Oil Exports: Japan, South Korea, China, other Pacific Rim countries
Suez Canal and Sumed Pipline	Location: Egypt; connects the Red Sea and Gulf of Suez with the Mediterranean Sea Oil Flows (2003E): 3.8 million bbl/d. Of this total, the Sumed Pipeline transported 2.5 million bbl/d of oil northbound (nearly all from Saudi Arabia) and the Suez Canal about 1.3 million bbl/d total. Destination of Sumed Oil Exports: Predominantly Europe; also United States. Concerns/Background: Closure of the Suez Canal and/or Sumed Pipeline would divert tankers around the southern tip of Africa (the Cape of Good Hope), adding greatly to transit time and effectively tying up tanker capacity.

Except for the Russian oil pipelines and the Panama Canal, which has been excluded from this list, nearly all the oil chokepoints are in regions where groups like Al Qaeda can be expected to operate. But although the dependence on oil is global, the defense of these strategic corridors has not been internationalized. While the US does not use the oil shipped through the Straits of Malacca, it will naturally be the linchpin around which the Regional Maritime Security Initiative, which is expected to secure the Straits, is based. This is not to say that America alone bears the cost of defending the oil supply. STRATFOR's June 8, 2004 briefing (hat tip reader JM) estimates that consumers already paying for terror at the pump. "Stratfor sources associated with a number of oil firms and finance houses indicate that there is approximately an $8 "terror" premium factored into the price of each barrel of oil."

This premium is charged by oil companies to provide 'security' for their facilities. For example, "the Canadian oil company Nexen, which operates the ash-Shihr oil export terminal, agreed in January 2003 to provide assistance to the Yemeni government in improving security" after an attack on the French-flagged tanker Limburg in 2002. Those who would revile the Blackwater security contractors in Iraq as "mercenaries" trading "blood for oil" should consider how this is the least of its manifestations. Yet none of these private arrangements would be of much use without the cover provided by US naval and military forces. A major interdiction of the Straits of Hormuz, Malacca or the Suez Canal would beyond the capability of a private oil company, however large, to remedy.

There is a further price which goes beyond securing existing facilities. As STRATFOR pointed out, the real problem is adding new oil production in areas beset by terrorism threats. Unlike existing facilities which can be run by Saudis, new production or enhanced recovery from mature fields is critically dependent on expatriate expertise and new investment. And it is precisely those expatriates who are being attacked.
See Monday, June 14, 2004 Blood of some, Oil of many

http://belmontclub.blogspot.com/

[combat_boots]

http://www.peakoil.net//Publications/Cheney_PeakOil_FCD.pdf

"Dick Cheney, Peak Oil and the Final Count Down By Kjell Aleklett Uppsala University, Sweden Aleklett@tsl.uu.se President of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil www.peakoil.net May 12, 2004"

[combat_boots]

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/prices.html#CrudeFutures

xxxxx

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Page last modified on 01/28/2004 15:11:07

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Thanks for the Links.

By the way, the latest national Geographic has article titled, The End of Cheap Oil.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Good stuff.

[El Sordo]

"The End of Cheap Oil."

Saw that on the newsstand. Haven't read it yet.

I cannot say I am optimistic. When I want public interest stories and great photos, NG is a good way to go.

When I want hard science on controversial issues, NG doesn't have the greatest of track records.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

NG has an agenda!