The Guild 11-9-2003 Thoughts Of Finding A Penny

[BigWaveBetty]

Good Morning!

[BigWaveBetty]

Pick up a penny today!

[Iowa Granny]

Good Morning. Thanks for the new thread.

Wonderful thoughts this morning.

[BigWaveBetty]

Good Morning. The story warmed my heart, a much needed boost after listening to the droning of the dims.

[Hillary's Lovely Legs]

I would pick up a penny, but I am all thumbs.

[Iowa Granny]

From this morning's Des Moines Register, a political column from the top political writer in the state. He truely understands Iowa politics.

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Iowans comfy with Gephardt
By DAVID YEPSEN Register Political Columnist
11/09/2003

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Democratic presidential candidate Dick Gephardt has been described as a "comfortable old pair of shoes" in Iowa - familiar and durable. After trying the latest fashion from New England, it seems many Iowa Democrats are grabbing their old Midwestern favorites again.

At least that's the conclusion from today's Iowa Poll showing the Missouri congressman overtaking the former Vermont governor among likely Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa. Gephardt, who won the Iowa caucuses in 1988, trailed Dean in an August poll of these Democrats.

The only good news for Dean in today's poll is that he still leads among the diehards, those zealous folks who say they'll most definitely show up on caucus night. They are driven a lot by their strong opposition to the war, and Dean is their champion. Dean's problem is that polls show more Democrats say the economy is the top issue, not the war. Gephardt's been getting a lot of union endorsements and the poll shows his support among labor households is increasing. Dean had been gnawing into that base.

(Which is why you should now look for Howard Dean to be praying for a blizzard on caucus night because it might discourage Gephardt's more marginal supporters from showing up. Something like that happened in 1972, when anti-Vietnam War activists braved winter storms to give George McGovern a strong second place showing against Ed Muskie. Gephardt can take comfort in knowing that Muskie did win that year, thanks to party regulars who showed up for him. Regulars are called regulars because they are, well, pretty regular in showing up for things like precinct caucuses.)

Today's Iowa Poll is the latest of several surveys indicating Dean's campaign has flattened out in Iowa. (Dean actually slipped three points since an August Iowa Poll, but that's margin-of-error stuff. It's too early to say he has peaked. Gephardt has gained six points, a figure outside the poll's 4.5 percent margin of error.)

What happened to Dean? Other candidates are catching up to his early start in Iowa. They have stepped up their attacks on him and are matching his angry rhetoric. They've also started airing television commercials and are picking at his inconsistencies. Dean also has come under greater scrutiny, and some days he doesn't wear too well under the strain.

Unlike Dean, Gephardt has been vetted in a national presidential campaign. There are no surprises in his closet or his archives. And after years on the national political stage, he's smart enough not to utter the first thing that comes to his mind. Doing that is one of the most refreshing things about Dean, but he's also discovering there can be a downside to popping off when there are dozens of TV cameras around.

Gephardt is doing well with seniors, who dominate caucuses. He may also be profiting from the more conservative Joseph Lieberman's departure from the race in Iowa. Previous polls of likely caucus-goers showed almost a third of Lieberman's supporters listed Gephardt as their second choice. Among all caucus-goers now, 16 percent list Gephardt as their No. 2 choice, more than any other candidate receives. (We've all learned to watch second-choice preferences since they indicate where caucus-goers might land if their favorite stumbles or isn't viable on caucus night.)

None of this is a prediction. The poll shows three-fourths of the likely caucus-goers remain undecided, and many will stay that way until the last day. While Dean is in a bit of a rough patch, his true-believing "Deaniac" friends can still win it for him here, something he'd dearly love because it would probably knock Gephardt from the race and widen his own lead over John Kerry in New Hampshire. A candidate who wins both Iowa and New Hampshire gets awfully hard to stop for the nomination.

Which is why so much is at stake in Iowa. It's why the shoving and (alleged) name-calling between a Dean spy and Gephardt aides at a recent Gephardt rally may just be a taste of things to come.

http://www.dmregister.com/opinion/stories/c5917686/22692566.html

[lodwick]

Zell gets it.

[Iowa Granny]

Love that cartoon. Isn't it great?

[BigWaveBetty]

How do two thumbs pick up a penny? Very carefully, keeping one foot one the ground at all times.

[BigWaveBetty]

At least with Iowa, Gephardt won't go home completely empty handed. *snicker*

[mountaineer]

Seen in NYC, per Page Six:

BILL Clinton treating daughter Chelsea to a power lunch at Lever House, near the table of Anderson Cooper and Joe Klein.

I wonder if that was before or after his trip to Hong Kong to say the U.S. should send aid to the North Korean govt., which really is more interested in feeding its people than developing nukes (in Blubba's expert opinion). Sounds like they were among friends, at any rate.

Wesley Clark rides the NY subway and answers a few questions:

Q: Some folks have been saying that his dear friends, Bill and Hillary Clinton, are touting him behind the scenes as a stalking horse for a possible Hillary candidacy.

A: "That's just silly. That's silly talk. It's partisan."

Q: And what is Clark's reaction to former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean's pandering comment that that he, Dean, wants the votes of Southerners, i.e. "guys with Confederate flags in their pickup trucks"?

A: "Well, he shouldn't have said those things. I think all Americans - and this is a joke! - all Americans, even if they're from the South and 'stupid,' should be represented." NY Daily News

[Iowa Granny]

If Geppy wins Iowa, he will stay in longer.

I am having a difficult time remembering the cronalogical order of the primarys after New Hampshire. Is Super Tuesday next?

My guess is when the returns come in on Super Tuesday they will have their candidate. And with Howies money pile, my money is on him.

He has made so many gawfs, it should be a delightful General Election.

[Hillary's Lovely Legs]

If the 'stupid' people want representation, they have an excellent candidate in Clark.

Actually, they have 9 choices that would really fit the bill. How lucky for them.

[mountaineer]

Wesley hereinafter shall be my "silly talk" candidate.

[BigWaveBetty]

Not familiar with Super Tuesday, I'll see what I can find.

While slumming on the subway Clark answered some questions:

[snip}
Q: And what is Clark's reaction to former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean's pandering comment that that he, Dean, wants the votes of Southerners, i.e. "guys with Confederate flags in their pickup trucks"?

A: "Well, he shouldn't have said those things. I think all Americans - and this is a joke! - all Americans, even if they're from the South and 'stupid,' should be represented." Link

Yep Wesley, you're a real laugh riot. What a maroon.

Bless his idiot heart.

[BigWaveBetty]

You beat me! The dog needed a walk.

[BigWaveBetty]

Though the presidential elections are a year away, the first significant votes will be cast Jan. 19, in the church basements and living rooms where Iowans hold their first-in- the-nation caucus. New Hampshire follows Jan. 27. And a front-loaded Democratic primary schedule means an opponent for President George W. Bush could be picked by the March 2 "Super Tuesday" contests in New York, California, Texas and 10 other states.

That's the way Democratic leaders wanted it. The hope was an earlier selection of a standardbearer would leave him or her and the party less damaged and drained of money. Link

Hope that was what you were looking for.

[lodwick]

It is indeed.

IPW is doing good stuff up there.

Cheers.

[lodwick]

Dean might explode before it's over...

[mountaineer]

This is one of those threads that probably won't get any replies, but that's not why I posted it. Veterans Day 1956; A WWI Vet Warns Against any "isms" but Americanism is a speech my late grandfather gave on Veterans Day 1956 to the local American Legion of his little W.Va. town. He talks about our proud heritage of freedom, contrasts it with the communist system (remember, this was during the Cold War), and discusses how precious our Bill of Rights is. It's a look at the mood of the nation back then - hope you all find it interesting.