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Fox News interviewed a intelligence expert the other night who is close friends with a Saudi prince. He spoke of the prince describing how the forty-something-ish Saudi upper middle class is frightened of their children. He said that the prince would check on his daughter, and she would be listened to Brittney Spears music, but the second she thought he was out of sight she was listening to jihadi music again.

Saudi Arabia has a serious problem with the radicalization of their young people, from thirty-ish and under. Basically everyone generation X and less.

The rulers in Saudi Arabia are getting up in years. The moderates are in their forties and fifties for the most part. The generation X'ers and younger are to a large degree radicalized. But unlike in many countries, the radicalized youth are NOT the underclass. These guys are for the most part VERY wealthy. They have money. To a large degree they are are indulged and spoiled.

These kids, for lack of a better word, are for the most part educated and cultured. There is no way to know from here how extensively the extremist have inflitrated the Saudi institutions - but these guys would fit in perfectly. After all, they are next to members of the same family, tribe, community, people they went to school with, and so on. They will fit in as long as it serves their purpose.

Also there is a huge area of the country call the Rub Al Khali - the empty quarter. It pretty much has nothing but sand dunes there. It is occupied by bedoiun nomads - tribal kinsmen to many of these extremist, who would almost certainly offer them hospitality and shelter. You could just about hide an army in the Rub Al Khali.

The fundamentalism is centered in Saudi Arabia. I believe it springs from four root causes. The first is a reaction to the Islamic revolution in Iran. Saudi Arabia, until the formation of the Islamic Republic of Iran, saw itself the world's only Islamic state. Once Iran was declared an Islamic state, the Saudi's had a problem. Remember that Iran is largely Shiite Moslems, while Saudi Arabia is largely populated by followers of Sunni Islam. So Saudi Arabia, as the keeper and protector of Mecca and Medina, had to "out-Islam" Iran. To do this, they set up and funded madrassas, encouraged study groups, and generally cracked down on any western ideas and independent thought (at least within the kingdom). That was problem number one. That set the scene for a generation to be educated by the Islamic clerics.

The second element was the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, a country largely populated by Moslems. In keeping with their mission of the “Guardians of Islam”, the Saudi’s used part of their oil wealth to arm a group of mercenaries (led by Osama Bin Laden) to help the Afghans repel the Soviet invasion. (Before you jump on the Saudi's too hard, remember how much US money went to help fund Osama and his merry men.) These mercenaries became known as “mujahadeen”, or freedom fighters, taking their names from the fighters who helped the prophet Mohamed spread early Islam.

OK so you've got two elements in place right there - you've got a generation of young men trained by the clerics, militarized, and now the war is over. What happens next?

Well, that's where element number 3 comes into play, at least in my analysis of the scenario. Since the creation of Israel, the Arab countries have been quite vocal in their hatred for the Jewish state. Up until the late 1970's it wasn't quite so bad because of the technology gap but by 1980 EVERYONE in the middle east had a TV and VCR in their home. (I mean just about everyone - I went out into the desert in Sinai one afternoon and visited with a lovely bedouin family - got some spectacular photos of the native dress if anyone is interested, but I digress - these people who lived in tents had a VCR and TV in their tent! Except for the TV and VCR they could have lived 500 years ago!)

Anyway, with the advent of 24 hour news coverage, 24 hour TV, and the MTV generation in general, the anti-Israeli rhetoric reached a new level. I think this current phase of Islamic fundamentalism actually dates to the first Intifada. Anyway you've got people up to 20 or 30 years old (and all the way down to infants) who have been reared on the death to Israel, death to America (the Great Satan) line. In other words, these governments have bred and encouraged the hatred - and now the hatred is turning back on them.

And the fourth element is that I truly believe the Saudi ruling family, until recently, has been wearing blinders about the extent of the radicalization of their youth. It seems obvious to us now - but did we really realize it prior to 9/11? (We SHOULD have been painfully aware of it after the Beirut hijacking in the late 1980's and after mobs marched in the streets shouting Death to America but we had our blinders on too.)

Remember the Saudi ruling family is talking about their grandkids and great grandkids and neices and nephews and other members of their tribe. The concept of tribe - of extended family - if very very powerful in the Arab world, and I'm not sure that we as Americans truly understand that.

The Saudi government has a serious problem.

And with the American dependence on foreign oil from the Middle East, when the Saudi government has a problem we have a problem. I don't know what the US would do if Al Qaeda staged a coup and took over the government. I imagine if they placed any of our most wanted terrorist in charge of the government we would probably move for regime change rather quickly. How extensive are our oil reserves? I'd be building them up if I were in charge I think. I've asked the same question of someone who is more knowledgable than I on the subject and I was told that they believed the US would move to secure our facilities and the oil fields.

I tend to agree with that analysis. I'm not sure the US would be allowed to do so. I imagine the UN wouldn't be too thrilled. The real question is how would Russia and China react? What about those countries that were supposedly entering into a nuclear arms pact with the Saudi's?

And the wild card would, as always, be Israel. Right now they are the only country the US can count on in the region.

I would assume that this scenario, and all its different potentialities, have been played out in DC. I certainly hope it has. Because no matter how much you point out the lack of rights of women in Saudi Arabia, and the human rights abuses, it is still a pink tea party compared to life under the Taliban in Afghanistan or even the Ayatullah's in Iran.

I was always taught revolution is bad, evolution is good. Gradual change allows social changes to keep pace; sudden changes bring the potential for catastrophe.

On to Pakistan... Pakistan has a different problem in my opinion. Funamentalism in Saudi Arabia is at the corporate office, so to speak. In Pakistan, it is franchised out, and their are many different interest groups working for different agendas. Take a look at the history of the Indian subcontinent - the concept of nationalism is still new to Pakistan. Pakistan has not been stable politically in its history and I don't expect it to start now. But right now it has to deal with the foreign elements and I'm not sure how they handle it. I'm not as familiar with Pakistan and the subcontinent so I'm going to stop here and defer to someone with more knowledge and experience.

Hope this helps answer your questions. Sorry about it being so long.

Thanks for the excellent summary. You took some pieces of the puzzle (in my mind) and put the puzzle together so it makes sense. Looks like the Saudi "elders" shot themselves in the foot with the "youngsters". It also makes sense now what a potential mess it could be world wide if there was a coup in S.A. Combine that with the seeming wild frontier in much of Pakistan and it looks real ugly. Thanks again. I always look forward to reading your posts.

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Thanks for sharing your knowledge and expertise regarding this situation. It helped me to gain a better understanding. Wow, this is interesting! I am learning so much in this thread. This is the best place to get "honest" news regarding terrorism, AQ, etc.!

BUMP to your Saudi Post. Is Bob Baer's book on the money regarding one of the wives of Faisal acting as a defacto regent and her son, Faisal's favorite, Afsouzi?

If you had to bet, how much time do you give the proWest Royals? Months, years?