That really depends upon which way the wind is blowing. Approximately 17 million people live within a 60 mile radius of NYC. If the wind blows from the W, then the 2.5 million people who live on Long Island are directly in the path; winds from the SW, then watch out in western Long Island, the Bronx, Eastern Westchester County, and the entire I-95 corridor up to Boston; winds from the NE or East, then the fallout heads to New Jersey -- the most densily populated state in the Country, and Pennsylvania; NW winds and the plume covers Brooklyn and western Long Island; S winds take the plume right up the Hudson River Valley where 1.3 million people live; and SE winds drive the plum over northern New Jersey, NE Pennsylvania, and SW New York. Only winds directly from the N would take the plume out to sea and that doesn't happen very often.
Interesting. What size detonation were you basing this off of? Also - what do you think the fallout risk is to Rochester, NY based on a nuke hit to NYC?