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SP2BF - your anaysis strikes me as right on the money. This is the bottom line reason why eom, daleel, et al, are still dangerous even if they are not "real" AQ. There are enough bogus wannabees out there that could be taking cues from them and being whipped into such a jihadi frenzy that they'll do whatever they can for "the cause".

As you point out, these tend to get caught because they aren't very smart or well funded, but their lack of connection can make them hard to catch, also.

Bottom line - we all need to keep our eyes open (can this be said too many times?).

I am 100% convinced these Internet jihad postings are baloney up and down. I played along to see what would come of them, but I'm skeptical now. Whether or not NEIN can find a dimaond in the rough remains to be seen. I don't believe they're making this stuff up out of whole-cloth, but
what they are gleaning IS made up out of whole-cloth -- in my opinion.

I think the misdirect was well-planned, and that actual communications are taking place under more conventional means with extreme care. I'm thinking couriered messages, coded conversations, etc. While the feds are scouring websites and deciphering encyrpted pictures, a small but tight-knit group is plodding along their next strike on the U.S., in a way that will surprise us all since we're chasing shadows in cyberspace.

Do I think it's WMD? No. My belief is that the next attack will be conventional. It will affect a large number of people, and we will be surprised in its ability to create panic.

Power outage? Maybe. Suicide bombers. Very possible. Nuclear weapons? Doubtful. Chemical/biological? No delivery system they can use would be reliable enough to afford the certain and brutal response of the United States if a WMD were released. Planes? The government thinks so.

Point is, this has been an intriguing discussion, but it's no longer worth anyone's angst. The message has been conveyed, and I have to call BS on it. February 2nd is practically a Free Republic holiday the way everyone is anticipating the end of civilization. Let's remember that "al Qaeda" does not look as good on a resume as it used to in the Middle East. Even Saddam apparently wanted no part. How telling is that when the Monster of Iraq gets squeamish about your application for employment?

At any rate, life is unpredictable. All I know is what I can see with my own two eyes, and I have to divide my trust to the outside world as I see fit. I don't trust Internet posts without a verifiable source. I do trust government agencies that have much deeper intel resources than we'll ever come into contact with. I have no choice.

Perhaps I'm wrong, but the days are a little nicer without worrying about some random shipping crate in an under-protected harbor. That's the error of a bombardment of misinformation. Pretty soon, the threat and situation is purported to be so bleak, it's not worth worrying about. It's like admitting we'll all die one day. That will be the end of my own personal Western civilization with unforgiving finality. I can't stop it from happening, so I choose not to worry about it.

Life is too short. I wish everyone a blessed 2004.