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Di Leo: Iran’s Military Is Broken — But the Regime Refuses to Surrender
Illinois Review ^ | Sept 1, AD 2026 | John F. Di Leo

Posted on 09/01/2026 8:12:41 PM PDT by jfd1776

There are several ways that wars end.

–One side conquers and annexes the other. –One side surrenders and gives up some of their land, treasure, and authority in a peace treaty. –One side has a domestic change of government and the new one befriends the other side. –Things reach a stalemate and the shooting stops in an ongoing, uncomfortable sort of permanent ceasefire.

The USA-Iran War has never fit comfortably into such normal classifications.

During the first 47 years of the war, the Twelver regime of Iran didn’t just attack the United States, but attacked countless countries and interests all over the world, few of them blatantly enough or frequently enough for their targets to really feel like it was a war. Iran was at war with everyone and no one at the same time, which made it difficult for the rest of the world to get up the will to start fighting back.

For 47 years, the Twelver regime would steadily build terrorist units and send them out across the world, funnel weaponry to their client groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis, and attack US ships or US-allied-flag commercial ships when in the neighborhood, but they would never do anything quite so blatant as to launch a full-fledged invasion that could be clearly recognized as the start of a hot war.

The few countries they did attack frequently, such as Israel, Yemen, Lebanon and Egypt, they attacked primarily through their work with the above-mentioned surrogates. It was a war for 47 years, but the USA could, if we chose, close our eyes to it. And for the most part, both Republican and Democrat administrations did.

Finally, in 2025, the United States and Israel determined that we could not allow this status quo to continue. Iran was already costing the world billions of dollars per day by the closure of the Suez Canal, the destabilization of multiple neighbors, and the rapidly approaching completion of a nuclear weapons program (which they have proven they would use with glee as soon as they had it). It was time for us to act, and we did.

In the past year, we have absolutely pummeled Iran. We’ve put their navy on the bottom of the sea, we’ve obliterated their air force, we’ve buried their nuclear program under immeasurable rubble, and we’ve emasculated much of their army.

By all traditional measures of war, they are defeated. Any normal country would have surrendered months ago.

But that’s because any normal country has a government with a sense of self-preservation. That is, normally, both the government wants to survive, and the government wants their people to survive. So eventually, in the interest of self-preservation, a defeated government will calculate the pain already inflicted upon them, and will come to the table to stop the bloodshed.

But Iran is ruled by Twelvers.

Twelvers don’t think like the rest of humanity does. They are happy to see bloodshed, anywhere, whether it’s their own, or their enemies’, or even noncombatants’. They just want to see bloodshed, because they think it will speed the “return” of their mahdi. If some of them die, even if all of them die, that’s fine, because in their warped minds, it will bring back their mahdi.

We have not fought a war against an enemy with this kind of a delusion before.

The Trump administration is therefore adjusting its plans and pivoting to a different end game, one in which Iran doesn’t surrender, but Iran doesn’t matter anymore.

This is a frustrating choice, and a sad one, because it wasn’t that long ago that Iran was a vibrant and successful member of the world community, and many of us were hoping for a return to that happy reality.

In the 1970s, Iran was the most modern, western-facing, successful country in the middle east. Then came the revolution that weaponized their oil and terrorized their population. For 47 years that once noble country has been a problem for the world, and with the long-postponed decision to act in 2025 and 2026, we hoped that this long global nightmare was finally over.

We must now acknowledge the reality that the Twelver regime will not capitulate, despite having been militarily wiped out. Iran will not have a change in government unless the people of Iran somehow manage to force such a change through a real civil war, which is not an easy task in a nation that’s been largely disarmed for 47 years.

So, what has the Trump administration done?

We are supporting neighboring Arab nations in finding ways to transport fuel outside Iran’s control, such as the new canal in Oman and the new pipelines across Saudi Arabia. We are protecting commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. And we are continuing to crack down on sanctions abuses, in order to further isolate and weaken Iran’s current regime.

This is admittedly not the slam-dunk that some of us (perhaps unrealistically) hoped for at the start.

But even so, contrary to claims to the contrary, the war has accomplished numerous major victories for the free peoples of the world, among them:

–Essentially eliminating Iran’s ability to support terrorism worldwide. –Essentially eliminating (or at least pushing back by decades) Iran’s ability to develop nuclear weapons. –Essentially eliminating Iran’s ability to supply its foreign surrogates (Hezbollah, the Houthis, Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood, etc.) with munitions or funding. –Greatly reducing Iran’s ability to supply our other major enemies (Russia, China, etc.) with oil. –Reducing the ability of our enemies to replace the US Dollar as the world’s de facto tool of international commerce. It wasn’t long ago that the BRICS crowd was boasting of their ascendancy; the collapse of Iran as an economic power has dealt a serious blow to that effort.

Another change worth noting – not actually caused by the war, but perhaps exposed by it – is the considerable disapproval of islam that we see in the people of Iran today. We have grown accustomed to muslims at least professing to being devout in public opinion polls, but it is reported that the Iranian population’s support of islam has plummeted in recent years, with roughly half the country turning atheist or deist in their rejection of islam, or returning to their former observance of Judeo-Christian, Zoroastrian, Bahai, or other religions, having lived through 47 years of Twelver rule.

This means that as the likely civil war eventually arises, the new government will likely have a peaceful melting pot of religions again, free of the reign of terror known as sharia law. Iran was once a peaceful and religiously pluralistic nation; the odds are that it shall soon be again.

In the meantime, what do we need? We just need our administration to stay the course.

We must not capitulate, by offering the Twelvers an easy peace treaty that legitimizes their tyrannical regime. We must not ease up in our control of the skies and the coasts. We need to keep the pressure on the Twelvers’ regime, so that when the public is finally ready to rise up and overthrow their satanic overlords, they have as free a hand as possible in the effort.

Until then, stay the course, don’t back down, and pray that the good people of Iran regain control of their government again – with the blessing of Divine Providence, sooner rather than later.

Copyright 2026 John F. Di Leo

John F. Di Leo is a Chicagoland-based trade compliance trainer and transportation manager, writer, and actor. Once a County Chairman of the Milwaukee County Republican Party in the 1990s, after serving as president of the Ethnic American Council in the 1980s, he has been writing regularly for Illinois Review since 2009. Professionally, he is a licensed Customs broker, and has worked in freight forwarding and manufacturing for over forty years. John is available for training seminars ranging from the Incoterms and free trade agreements to the challenge of re-shoring to minimize tariff impacts (https://tradecomplianceseminars.com/), as well as fiery speeches concerning the political issues covered in his columns. His book on vote fraud, “The Tales of Little Pavel,” his three-volume political satires of the Biden-Harris regime, “Evening Soup with Basement Joe,” and his 2024 non-fiction work covering the issues of the 2020s, "Current Events and the Issues of Our Age," are available in eBook or paperback, only on Amazon.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Military/Veterans; Miscellaneous; Politics
KEYWORDS: 1970s; 1979; 2025; axisofevil; iran; straitofhormuz; suezcanal; teheran; twelvers
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1 posted on 09/01/2026 8:12:41 PM PDT by jfd1776
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To: jfd1776

Doesn’t he have some delusions of his own, saying they are militarily wiped out when they continue to attack ships, military bases and oil facilities with missiles?


2 posted on 09/01/2026 8:17:21 PM PDT by Mount Athos
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To: jfd1776

He is exactly correct. Once our government figures this out, perhaps it will then kill every single member of that group it kind find. Send in troops and go kill them. There is no other way. The Iranian people WILL help you. Have faith, in God AND the non-psycho Iranian people.


3 posted on 09/01/2026 8:18:14 PM PDT by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin (Freedom is the freedom to discipline yourself so others don't have to do it for you.)
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To: jfd1776

You are making a great deal of sense.

Therefore a significant number of Freepers will hate it.

L


4 posted on 09/01/2026 8:27:21 PM PDT by Lurker ( Peaceful coexistence with the Left is not possible. Stop pretending that it is.)
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To: jfd1776

Consider the Texans holed up at the Alamo. The refused to surrender even though the odds were very much against them.

It would be a mistake to think the mullahs have any less grit.

Plus the mullahs have something the defenders of the Alamo did not. The mullahs have crazy religious fanaticism. Die, and you get 72 virgins.


5 posted on 09/01/2026 8:34:43 PM PDT by Leaning Right
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To: jfd1776

Iran is an Islamic theocracy. They will never surrender.
Therefore, the only way to win for America is forcing a true regime change. Anything less is futile.


6 posted on 09/01/2026 8:35:24 PM PDT by USA-FRANCE (Silence against evil isn't neutrality, it's complicity. Oppose the Iran-Russia-North Korea Alliance!)
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To: Leaning Right

Over the past 20 years, I’ve noticed that the Islamists in charge of various groups aren’t eager for martyrdom.


7 posted on 09/01/2026 8:38:29 PM PDT by Tijeras_Slim
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To: Leaning Right

Yes, and a new report designates RUSSIA as a massive provider of new generation missiles to Teheran.
Iran has Russia’s absolute and complete backing.


8 posted on 09/01/2026 8:38:32 PM PDT by USA-FRANCE (Silence against evil isn't neutrality, it's complicity. Oppose the Iran-Russia-North Korea Alliance!)
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To: Mount Athos

Lets carpet bomb that country with AK 47s and let the Iranians root the 12ers out.


9 posted on 09/01/2026 8:44:09 PM PDT by When do we get liberated? (A socialist is a communist who realizes he must suckle the breast of Capitalism.)
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To: When do we get liberated?
Lets carpet bomb that country with AK 47s and let the Iranians root the 12ers out.

Amen

10 posted on 09/01/2026 8:50:42 PM PDT by nuke_road_warrior (Making the world safe for nuclear power for over 39 years.)
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To: jfd1776
‘Tis but a scratch.
11 posted on 09/01/2026 8:52:02 PM PDT by nuke_road_warrior (Making the world safe for nuclear power for over 39 years.)
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To: When do we get liberated?

“We have grown accustomed to muslims at least professing to being devout in public opinion polls, but it is reported that the Iranian population’s support of islam has plummeted in recent years….”
These are the ones that need to get the AK47s, but intelligence would have to figure out how and where to find them first.


12 posted on 09/01/2026 8:53:02 PM PDT by doc maverick
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To: When do we get liberated?

I would suggest dropping .38 caliber long-barrel revolvers, along with boxes of ammunition. Those pistols are easy to load, and to fire. And there’s little chance of jamming.

And if some of them fall into IRGC hands, who cares? It’s not like they’re acquiring machine guns.

Maybe the Trump administration is already doing this. And if not, why not???


13 posted on 09/01/2026 9:02:35 PM PDT by Leaning Right
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

He is exactly correct. Once our government figures this out, perhaps it will then kill every single member of that group it can find.

*********************************************************

I’m thinking Trump has finally figured this out, which is better than I can say for most others.

IRGC is _the_ problem right now. They’re armed, the general population is not. Maybe find out where the IRGC is and drop a pallet of firearms and ammo where they’re not. Israeli intelligence would be an immense help in figuring out where to drop the arms. Airdrop of palletized equipment is something the Air Force practices on a regular basis; tell them which mushroom and they’ll put it there.

Sending in troops would be a bad idea. The cost in blood and treasure would be immense, dwarfing what we have spent so far. Trump is trying something that’s never been done before - basically bankrupt and starve them, break their society and government. We’ll see how this goes - I’m willing to sit back and take the time.

This isn’t a huge war; it’s basically regional, with a small region, one country surrounded by hostile countries due to Iran basically trying to shotgun all its neighbors.

And - It’s native Persians going up against a bunch of invading moslems. If you wanna start a barfight call a Persian a moslem, then duck.


14 posted on 09/01/2026 9:04:20 PM PDT by dagunk
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To: jfd1776

Like cockroaches, they will be here until the end of time. It’s how it has been for thousands of years.


15 posted on 09/01/2026 9:09:45 PM PDT by llevrok (Voter apathy wins elections for liberals.)
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To: Leaning Right

I would suggest dropping .38 caliber long-barrel revolvers, along with boxes of ammunition. Those pistols are easy to load, and to fire. And there’s little chance of jamming.

**************************************

See post 14. We’re thinking alike. Your weapon suggestion is great.


16 posted on 09/01/2026 9:12:49 PM PDT by dagunk
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To: Leaning Right

FP-45 Liberators and the equivalent of billions of dollars in counterfeit Iranian bank notes.


17 posted on 09/01/2026 9:23:36 PM PDT by SpaceBar
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To: jfd1776

The regime doesn’t surrender because it does not believe Trump will ever put American boots on the ground. The regime doesn’t care how many Iraniana die. If Trump won’t finish it, they win.


18 posted on 09/01/2026 9:28:03 PM PDT by sphinx
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To: SpaceBar

> [drop] the equivalent of billions of dollars in counterfeit Iranian bank notes <

It’s late, and I didn’t think of that most excellent idea.
👍


19 posted on 09/01/2026 9:28:41 PM PDT by Leaning Right
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To: Mount Athos
There are numerous problems and omissions in the article, which I will get to some of, in posts below.

However, on this point, you are not a careful reader - or perhaps your reading comprehension of English stinks. I wonder why that might be.

To wit:

Doesn’t he have some delusions of his own, saying they are militarily wiped out when they continue to attack ships, military bases and oil facilities with missiles?

The author clearly qualifies his statement:

By all traditional measures of war, they are defeated.

A rough analogy might be if I use my pellet rifle to shoot a raccoon attacking our chickens. It is mortally wounded & will certainly die, but if I didn't hit it in a very quickly critical spot, if I get too close it still may be able to bite me. Moreover, because I rushed out, to try to not give the varmint time to kill a chicken, the pellet that was in the rifle is the only one I had on me. The raccoon is most certainly "defeated". But, until it expires, it is still dangerous.

20 posted on 09/01/2026 9:44:57 PM PDT by Paul R. (Who else but Dolly Parton could go so far by being so genuine about being so fake?)
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