Inside Elections 2018 vs 2026 House Ratings

X ^ | 06/09/2026 | OSZ

[SmokingJoe]

OSZ @OpenSourceZone Inside Elections 2018 vs 2026 House Ratings

2018:

🔵 Democrats: 214

🔴 Republicans: 201

🟡 Tossup: 20

2026:

🔴 Republicans: 217 (+16)

🔵 Democrats: 204 (-10)

🟡 Tossup: 14 (-6)

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TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: midterms; polls

[SmokingJoe]

Buh bye Hakeem!

[Jonty30]

Some of it is due to that liberals are aging out and dying.
Every year, Republicans get about 0.5% more electable. This will be the way it will be for at least 20 years if Democrats repudiated abortion today.

[SmokingJoe]

Don't forget redistricting and the massive loss of Virginia state government in court.
That loss plus the SCOTUS ruling on VRA finished off the Democrats.

[UnwashedPeasant]

This data probably assumes an even playing field instead of epic Democrat cheating.

[SmokingJoe]

More bad news for Democrats.

USPS to stop delivering mail in ballots in states that don't hand over their voter rolls

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GtwiQP-wJWU

[SmokingJoe]

See 5.

[Jonty30]

You’re not going to win every battle yet, but while the Democrats may have finagled 10 seats in a few states, Republicans did something like 26 seats.

[spincaster]

Let us not count our chickens.

[ChronicMA]

while this information is useful to know, don’t make the mistake of treating one comparison of two election predictions 8 years apart as highly significant. There are always other factors going on.

[maddog55]

I’ll wait till the actual elections are over...

[Greg123456]

That will be found unconstitutional.

[SmokingJoe]

US Mail is in the constitution?
What part?

[SmokingJoe]

Umm...no.

[SmokingJoe]

Other factors like Trump totally outmaneuvering the Democrats in redistricting?
And winning the VRA war at SCOTUS?

[Jim Noble]

Article I section 8 powers of Congress - post offices and post roads

[SmokingJoe]

Grok:

“President's Role
The President has no direct constitutional control over USPS operations. The President's influence is indirect and limited:
Appoints (with Senate confirmation) the 9 members of the USPS Board of Governors.

The Board appoints and can remove the Postmaster General, who manages day-to-day operations.
The President cannot unilaterally fire the Postmaster General, dictate specific mail routes, close post offices en masse, or change core operations without following statutory processes or getting congressional buy-in.

This structure was designed to reduce direct political interference in mail delivery.

Key Takeaway
Constitution → Congress controls the authority and framework for the USPS.
President has appointment powers and general executive oversight, but operates within laws passed by Congress. The USPS has statutory independence precisely to limit direct presidential control.

In short: Congress (via the Constitution) controls the USPS more than the President does. The President cannot “take over” or fundamentally alter the USPS without Congress. For the definitive source, see the Constitution Annotated on the Postal Clause and the Postal Reorganization Act.”

End of Grok extract.

Bottom line Democrats don't control Congress or the Presidency right now.

[Jonty30]

Youre right, it is bot 26 seats. I was mustaken.

However, Republicans, if they dont squish, are at an advantage nonetheless.

Republicans gained 10 additional red-leaning seats in the House of Representatives due to the redistricting that took place ahead of the 2026 midterms. This resulted in a potential overall gain of five favorable seats for Republicans according to an internal assessment

[Merrick]

And in 2018 Republican won *two less* than that poll and Democrats got *all* tossups and more.

Find me a better poll.

[Merrick]

This poll takes that into account. Democrats are still likely to get the House without a lot of hard work moving this ball further.

[Jim Noble]

I paid for (part of) college, and all of medical school, as a summer temp city letter carrier. I worked during the transition from the Post Office Department (the pony express arm patch) to the US Postal Service (the stupid modern art eagle patch), and I learned a lot about the mail.

I missed one summer because of affirmative action. A lot of those program hires threw out mail rather than deliver it, which was the end of that program.

One thing I learned was about the special status of First Class mail. It’s only recently that Amazon packages take priority over First Class (not sure that’s legal, BTW).

Anyway, all end state (sorted and deliverable) First Class mail “belongs” to the local Postmaster and is protected by the Postal Inspection Service - if a lot of what happens there is a joke, the Postal Inspectors are not a joke.

I am quite sure that a mail-in ballot (which should, of course, be illegal) enjoys First Class mail status and that the President of the United States (whoever it is) has no authority to interfere with distribution.