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Posted on 05/19/2026 1:18:35 AM PDT by SmokingJoe
This video provides a pre-election analysis of the 2026 Republican primary for Kentucky's 4th Congressional District, where incumbent Representative Thomas Massie faces a significant challenge from Donald Trump-endorsed candidate Ed Gallrein (referred to as "Gowrine" in the video).
Key takeaways from the analysis:
Polling and Betting Markets: The narrator highlights recent polling data and betting market trends showing that while the race was previously closer, momentum has shifted in favor of Ed Gallrein in the days leading up to the election (0:42-1:46, 1:51-2:47).
Context of the Race: The video compares this contest to the recent primary loss of long-term Senator Bill Cassidy in Louisiana, suggesting that the "Trump-backed" label is a powerful factor in these primary battles (2:51-3:57).
Divisions in the GOP: The analysis discusses the internal party dynamics, noting that while many standard Republican figures have distanced themselves from Massie, he retains support from specific high-profile allies such as Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert (4:02-4:43, 6:02-6:33).
Prediction: Despite acknowledging the possibility of being wrong, the creator predicts a victory for Ed Gallrein by approximately four percentage points, citing the combined strength of polling trends and betting market shifts (6:33-7:36).
Note on Accuracy: While the video focuses on the primary race scheduled for the following day (May 19, 2026), external reports confirm that this is a highly contentious, real-time political event. The candidate's name is Ed Gallrein, who is a retired Navy SEAL and farmer. As of the current date, May 19, 2026, the primary election is taking place, and final certified results are still pending.
(Excerpt) Read more at youtube.com ...
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With a razor thin Republican majority in the House, even if he loses, Massie will screw things up until January.
Especially if he loses.
I’m not entirely sure how I should feel about this, because I don’t how sincerely he was about being a libertarian.
“Screw” things?
With what?
This is a bit presumptuous - there has to be an actual election, which is today. Nothing is certain until the votes are cast and counted. Based on the totality of the data, I would say it is a 50/50 shot. Despite everything, he is a decades-long incumbent and until recent years was popular for most of his tenure in the district. He has that going for him.
General advice, offered for free:
Hold your popcorn and take a seat.
Frankly if Trump wants him gone then I want him gone too. I don’t always know the reasons for why Trump does things . I get annoyed sometimes at his Tweets . Given the level of hate from the Left you know he is the right guy.
"Thomas Massie Will LOSE"
Ain’t got no popcorn.
And I Like standing.
Why don’t you guys (anti Trump army) take a seat instead?
Holy crap - there’s even a huge caveat at the end of the OP. Good grief. Massie whiners. I hope Massie loses so at least we won’t have to hear them whine about Massie much longer.
To he clear - I care *most* that we get an R in this district in the next Congress. If I were a voter there, I’d choose Gallrein in the primary, but wouldn’t be losing sleep over a Massie win. The Republic does not hinge on *this* vote.
Either way, people need to be educated about his Votes.
The Internet push to convince people he’s something else is crazy.
He’s against ICE, for God’s sake. How many DEM problems bloom without ICE and borders?
Dude actually voted to allow China to sell Toxic panels here, knowing the hidden cost on the back end.
Adam Schiff, Rashida Tlaib, and Ilhan Omar were all rescued by Massie votes so they would not face Investigation / accountability.
He was going to side with the Dims, Win or Lose.
I don’t like him for the same reason I don’t like Lindsey Graham. They are actors and saboteurs. He better hope they don’t do a financial audit.
Well, at least the vid didn’t make out Gallrein as “Gowron”...
Rightly or wrongly, when someone like Massie gets sideways with a segment of the electorate, stories start appearing smearing him for being one thing or the other, like a womanizer, abusive to subordinates, etc., look for those stories to ramp up regardless of the outcome.
If Massie wins today, look for those stories to ramp up hoping to take him out in 2028, if he loses today, those stories might continue for a short time as way to say, we dodged a bullet by defeating him now...
You are correct.
It takes time, but I have examples on the Right and Left of that creep in public opinion where they weather that first Election only to be sent home in the subsequent.
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