Posted on 04/17/2026 9:36:30 PM PDT by lasereye
This is a serious question. It seems that on alternate days, “Iran” declares that the Strait of Hormuz is open. The Strait is closed. The Strait is open with strict Iran-favorable conditions. The Strait is closed to all except Iran friends and family.
We never get a straight story. I follow the shipping news closely and even in the darkest days of the Iran crisis, a least a few ships appeared to be getting through.
Early on, Iran made some threats that they were never in any position to follow through on. Nonetheless, insurance companies panicked, ship owners got cold feet, and the flow slowed to a trickle. But I don’t believe that it ever actually stopped.
Later, “Iran” claimed to have laid mines in the Strait, but also claimed that they couldn’t remember where the mines were placed.
As Zerohedge points out, the moment of truth is about to arrive,
Persian Gulf Tanker Armada Races For Hormuz After Iran Says Strait Is Open https://t.co/BggzQF6v1E— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 17, 2026
Will they get through? Or will they chicken out and reverse course?
Meanwhile, the New York Post reports,
The first commercial ship successfully sailed through the Strait of Hormuz Friday after Iran agreed to reopen the vital waterway following a weeks-long closure.
The Celestyal Discovery cruise ship cleared the strait, just hours after Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced the narrow waterway was once again fully open to all commercial vessels — after the Iranian regime had threatened to attack any ship that transited it following the launch of the US and Israel’s war on Tehran.
Bon voyage!
The “Strait” was never straight and neither was its handling by the Iranians.
“The path of least resistance makes all rivers, and most men, crooked.”— Napoleon Hill.
IEA says oil supply fell approx 10% in March, which is double the relative size of the 1973 Oil Shock
https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-april-2026
True. It isn’t insignificant.
Thankfully Brent crude is down to $85 bucks, the stock market is roaring like a turbocharged dragster, gold and silver are going up again and I sure don’t see anyone waiting in line for gas.
Except those foreign tankers coming to the Gulf of America for U.S. crude.
Another story designed to make President Trump’s actions appear futile.
Only fools take this kind of pearl-clutching seriously.
Maybe less “closed” and more “CONSTRAINED”.
NY INVESTMENT BANK, INC.
Dear Tanker Owner:
We would like to do a joint venture with you in regard to exporting oil from an Arab Gulf country.
The markup would be distributed as follows:
1. the pre-war shipping fee to you
2. four times the pre-war insurance cost to us
3. a split of the rest of the markup with a percentage of 2% to 40% going to you that you shall specify in writing
Your Tanker X would be valued at $Y million for this venture.
We would pay you the percentage of the cost of Iranian damage to the tanker repair/$Y of 100% less the percentage you choose to have of the markup in case of damage/destruction.
LONDON INVESTMENT BANK, LTD.
Dear Tanker Owner:
We would like to:
1. lease your tanker X for 60 days and guarantee to you the value of the tanker of $Y million in case of destruction and the cost of repair if damaged
2. have the use of its crew at its normal rate of pay plus $50,000 for the crew for each transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
“IEA says oil supply fell approx 10% in March, which is double the relative size of the 1973 Oil Shock”
The demand for heating oil is now soft.
The summer travel season hasn’t started.
“IEA says oil supply fell approx 10% in March, which is double the relative size of the 1973 Oil Shock”
The British, French, Indian, and Chinese government can lease tankers and fly their flags on them.
Iran:
China 1 is coming through. Stay out of its way.
Xi
“Hormuz traffic”
Maybe it’s 20% of normal.
The internal power struggle in Iran is still unfolding.
Every time the political faction makes a diplomatic gain, the IRGC has to undermine it in a show of control.
This will repeat until the IRGC is defeated.
-PJ
Bkmk
https://www.vesselfinder.com/?p=IRZBR001
Here is another vessel tracker
It’s like being married to someone with Borderline Personality Disorder
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