Posted on 03/14/2026 6:56:03 AM PDT by Starman417
Iran's leadership and its triad of threats: nuclear ambiguity, surging missiles, and drone swarms – the very real hegemonic danger that extended far beyond the Middle East.
For years, the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—the Iran nuclear deal—was sold as a historic diplomatic achievement that blocked Iran's path to a nuclear weapon for a generation. Supporters praised it as pragmatic restraint. Critics, including myself, saw it for what it really was: a temporary pause that let Iran preserve its nuclear infrastructure, accelerate its military capabilities, and wait out the sunset clauses.
The deal was never designed to be permanent. Many of its most important restrictions—on centrifuge numbers, enriched uranium stockpiles, enrichment levels, and research activities—were set to expire after 10–15 years, with major elements phasing out around 2025–2030. UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which endorsed the JCPOA, would terminate entirely on October 18, 2025, ending snapback sanctions and global oversight. Obama and his team essentially kicked the can down the road, betting that time would moderate the regime or that future administrations would handle the fallout.
Iran never genuinely committed to using uranium only for peaceful purposes. It bargained in bad faith from the beginning. While the IAEA verified technical compliance with core nuclear limits from 2016–2018 (e.g., enrichment capped at 3.67%, stockpiles below 300 kg), parallel concerns persisted: German intelligence reports on illicit procurement of dual-use and prohibited technology, U.S. and Israeli warnings about hidden past military dimensions, and probing of JCPOA boundaries. These weren't outright violations of the deal's narrow terms—but they were clear signals of intent. Iran wasn't building trust; it was buying time to strengthen its position.
After the Trump administration withdrew in 2018 and reimposed sanctions, Iran waited a year before beginning systematic breaches in 2019—escalating enrichment to 60% (near weapons-grade), amassing larger stockpiles, and reducing IAEA access. By the mid-2020s, breakout timelines had shrunk to weeks. The IAEA could no longer assure the program was exclusively peaceful due to undeclared sites, hidden material, and verification gaps. The sunsets were approaching, and Iran was positioning itself to cross the nuclear threshold once the restrictions lifted.
Meanwhile, Tehran accelerated the other two prongs of its triad for regional dominance:
Missiles — Iran's ballistic missile arsenal grew dramatically over the last decade. From roughly 1,000–2,000 missiles in the mid-2010s, it expanded to over 3,000 by 2025, with some projections estimating potential for 8,000+ within a few more years if unchecked. The focus shifted to precision-guided, solid-fuel systems (Kheibar Shekan, Fattah "hypersonic" variants) that could launch quickly, maneuver to evade defenses, and strike with accuracy measured in tens of meters. Production ramped up, facilities went underground, and testing intensified.
Drones — The UAV program became a game-changer. The Shahed-136 family—cheap ($20,000–$50,000 each), long-range (up to 2,000+ km), and mass-producible—scaled massively. Production was dispersed across hardened sites like Isfahan (HESA), Parchin Military Complex, Qom industrial zones, and underground facilities in central and western provinces. Thousands were built annually, battle-tested via proxies and Russia (as Geran-2 in Ukraine), and designed for saturation attacks that overwhelm expensive air defenses.
Together with proxies—the "Axis of Resistance"—this triad gave Iran asymmetric leverage without needing conventional superiority. Hezbollah in Lebanon provided northern rocket pressure; the Houthis in Yemen threatened Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab shipping; Iraqi militias (Kataib Hezbollah, Harakat al-Nujaba, Asaib Ahl al-Haq) targeted U.S. bases and energy infrastructure; remnants in Syria and Palestinian groups added secondary fronts. The strategy created a "ring of fire" around adversaries, imposed costs through deniable attacks, and stretched coalition resources.
The ultimate economic weapon was the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow chokepoint carrying ~20% of global oil (~20 million barrels per day) and substantial LNG flows from Qatar and others.
(Excerpt) Read more at floppingaces.net...
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Sold by the press because the president was a Democrat and a black Democrat at that. Those of us with a brain knew it was a bad deal from the get-go. And if I recall correctly, after the deal was signed Iran came back and demanded more and Obama sent them an airplane load of $100 bills.
Seize Kharg, seize lands along Hormuz, and retain forever as US territory.
Repay the USA and Israel for the heavy cost of this kinetic, using Iran’s oil. Plus the cost of deterring Iran’s nuclear ambition and enduring its world terrorism for nearly 50 years. Use Iran’s oil to pay reparations to all countries damaged by Iran including the USA and Israel.
Justice must be done.
Force a new secular constitution on Iran that bans Ayatolls mullahs and mass murderers from any position of power. Force all positions of responsibility to be non-cleric for government, economy, military, and education.
Force the establishment of a Nuremberg Trials to punish all Iranian Islamist jackals who have murdered their own people and the people of the rest of the world, including in our country and in Israel.
“Missiles, Drones, and Hormuz Blackmail”
Iranian oil can be blocked from transiting Hormuz unless it was paid for by money given in trust to the US government for civil use only administration.
Hard currency transfers to Afghanistan and Pakistan should be blocked so Iran can’t get its hand on hard currency by selling oil to those countries outside of US oil revenue administration.
.
Not Iran it’s islam
dems are like.....Meh! We’ll see what they do. Maybe.
There are too many crazies there that will have to be dealt with in a way the whole world abhors. When 300k gather in the public square to chant death to America who’s gonna drop the MOAB in the middle of it?
It looks like a ‘controlled’ civil war is called for. A civil war where the weapons are small arms. The anti-Shah crazies in the 70’s were more than a reaction to his rule and there are more than a few of them.
The Pavalvi fella thinking a 100 day turnover to a new system is more than a bit naive.
Yup. Not as simple as some believe.
I hope they are drilling baby drilling.
They kicked the can down the road and the road is NY.
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