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Posted on 03/12/2026 10:21:09 AM PDT by Fitzy_888
Wars rarely unfold the way leaders expect.
They begin with plans for quick victories, decisive strikes, and controlled escalation. But once the shooting starts, wars develop their own momentum. Political pressures rise, adversaries adapt, and the logic of escalation begins to shape events in ways few decision-makers initially anticipate.
The early phase of the Iran war is already displaying several recurring strategic patterns that have appeared repeatedly across modern conflicts. These patterns do not predict every event. But they help explain why wars that begin with expectations of rapid success often expand into much larger and more dangerous confrontations.
(Excerpt) Read more at escalationtrap.substack.com ...
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Wars are fought to change the enemy's minds - either have them say "OK, you're right" or by direct application of 5.56mm persuasion.
The only bombs that convinced the enemy to surrender are the ones dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
The Islamic Republic is a sponsor of terror around the world and is developing nuclear weapons. That means it must be taken down by whatever means.
It is a great mission.
The details are the problem.
No battle plan survives the first shot.
I really hope Trump is told this by his inner advisers. this is how quagmires begin. The only response is brutal, overwhelming destruction and mass causalities, without apology or respite.
Gunboat diplomacy worked well in the mid to late 1800s.
Bombing is equivalent today.
It may be the difference is how much the rulers had the consent of the population.
Germany was behind Hitler. Vietnam was behind Ho Chi Min. England was behind Churchill.
It does not seem the Theocracy is popular in Iran.
True. But only after years of grinding island warfare and air attacks.
Yep. The good thing is that we and Israel have a very good intelligence apparatus in Iran.
Total destruction of the enemy; his means and will to resist."
Make sure you know who the enemy is. In this case it’s the IRGC. Laser focus on destroying them, through all channels.
While we certainly have risks of escalation, the acceleration of the bombing campaign in Iran is necessary and highly beneficial.
The faster we take out the Islamic State leadership, it's weapons and nuclear weapons program components, the IRCG network and it's secret police repression operatives the better
Armchair quarterback articles like this neglect the fact that sometimes you simply have no choice but to act and that was the case with Iran
Since the Trump Administration took out much of the Iranian nuclear program the Ayatollahs have been working overtime to mass produce their new generation of remarkably sophisticated and capable ballistic missiles delivery systems, their nuclear bomb component making capability and they have been working to recover their stockpiles of 60% refined weapons grade uranium and other radioactive isotopes suitable for a radiological weapon from the bombed facilities.
The Iranians have a ton of centrifuges hidden around the country and if they can get their hands on the high grade feed stock then weapons grade uranium is only one step away. It does not take a lot of centrifuge capacity to refine enough weapons grade materials to make a few bombs.
The reality is that Iran has been pushing for round two of the ballistic missile wars only this time with nuclear and radiological weapons
The US crossed the Rubicon well over a year ago with Iran and we are but one Democrat administration away from a nuclear weapons armed Iran. The Bush administration had a very well planned operation in place to overthrow the Islamic Republic timed to launch shortly after the 2008 elections.
They tried to pull it off but pro Iran Obama helped the Islamic State defeat the Green Uprising.
Who knows what the 2026 elections will bring so now was the time to act with Iran
“Make sure you know who the enemy is. In this case it’s the IRGC.”
You forgot the entire Democrat Party along with a not insignificant number of Republicans.
L
Agreed. And ignore the media when they tell you that an IRGC building was a school -- according to Iranian propaganda (which the leftist media ran with).
Or, as Mike Tyson once said, "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth."
It is well to keep in mind that the enemy, though he may be inferior militarily and ultimately lose, likely has a few plans and contingencies of their own, desperate though they may be.
It’s a cautionary argument. If the Iranian ability to launch missiles/drones comes to an end, I will consider that a considerable success. Beyond that, I don’t know. A domestic revolution might be ideal. If not, let the Kurds loose?
US boots on the ground is not ideal, but perhaps not out of the question. In Iraq, Bush/Powell mismanaged the peace for some time. I hate to think of what happened under Obama. Yet with all that, things are probably better now that they would have been if Hussein (either one) had remained in power.
To paraphrase Von Clausewitz...or was that “the fog of war”?
” Iran unexpectedly struck all the Gulf states, and even Azerbaijan: they are using a “horizontal” war strategy, trying to geographically widen the conflict.”
Aren’t they just making a lot of enemies?
What makes you think Iran is inferior militarily? They have been preparing for war for at least 25 years and have thought all this out carefully. We on the other hand did not and did not anticipate all of the consequences. Right now Iran is more than holding its own, so what is next after we run out of patriot and tomahawk missiles?
Trump & Israel planned on a very short war that has now blown up into something wider and does by every passing day. What are our plans to deal with all of this?
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