A letter from Israel (personal perspectives on the Iran war)

It’s been exactly a week since the war against Iran began. I am sure a lot of you want to know how we (we personally and we Israel) are doing and how we are experiencing this.

First some hard statistics. Iran launched close to 600 missiles and over 1500 suicide drones to attack Israel and 12 other countries, including a European country (Cyprus), Turkey and even Azerbaijan. Of these, roughly 200 targeted Israel. Almost all of them were intercepted, but there were 3 direct hits. Two missiles hit apartment buildings and one was a direct hit on a neighborhood bomb shelter. Eleven people were killed including three children from one family. Every time there is a missile attack everyone in the area where the missile may fall (which much of the time is about a quarter of the population of Israel) needs to be in shelters. The Iranians are using a strategy of firing a small number of missiles five to ten times a day. So, people are constantly running to shelters, spending several hours a day in them. Last night, there were about 5 attacks on Tel Aviv during the night. So, a lot of people are not getting much sleep. Spending the night running to the shelter every hour or two.

In terms of civil society, up until a day or two ago, everyone was told to remain a few minutes from a shelter and there could be no gatherings of people at all. That meant no school and no going to work. And as I said, hours in a shelter.

Two days ago, the restrictions were lifted a bit. Gatherings of up to 50 people are now allowed and people can go to work if there is a shelter they can get to in a matter of minutes. The schools are still closed. Parents of small children are in a quandary because they can’t go to work, even if in theory they are expected to, because they have to be home with their children. Businesses are suffering. People are not bringing home salaries. Lots of people were called up to their reserve units.

Despite the hardships, Israeli society is in euphoria. You may be thinking to yourselves, how can that possibly be under these conditions? As I tried to explain in my last mail, Iran is the head of the snake. They surrounded Israel with proxies (Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis) with terrorist armies in the tens of thousands of troops armed with missiles, rockets, and suicide drones that numbered over a hundred thousand. Iran itself planned to stockpile 8000 ballistic missiles in the next three years and were well on their way to making a nuclear bomb and had missiles capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. Iran has 450 kg of highly enriched uranium. Enough to make 11 atomic bombs. That is by their reports, not ours.

The ballistic missiles alone are an existential threat to us. Their missiles have warheads with 500 kg of explosives. When they hit, they can destroy and severely damage buildings in a hundred-yard radius. As a result of the three missiles that fell in Israel, thousands of homes can’t be lived in and thousands of people are homeless. This is terrible, but the feeling in Israel is that most of the damage is property. That can be fixed. Fortunately, the loss of life has not been as bad as it could be. (Touch wood.) It is estimated that Iran started the war with 2500 ballistic missiles. If they would acquire 8000, as they planned, and if only 10% of them got through our defenses (which is the estimate of our capabilities) then 800 ballistic missiles would potentially hit us. That in itself, without the nuclear threat, would be an existential threat to us. They could destroy Tel Aviv.

Until two and a half years ago, we felt the noose tightening around our necks. The Iranian proxies on our borders were strong and well-armed. We were intimidated by them to a certain extent and were wary of initiating hostilities with them. I was asked and probably some of you are wondering whether we are scared right now. The answer is no. The only time I personally felt scared (concerned is more the correct word) was up until two weeks ago. Iran’s intention was to destroy Israel. They put up a clock in a central square in Teheran that counted down the time when Israel would be eliminated. Zero hour was 2040. They were promising their people in the most public way that they would succeed in wiping Israel off the map in the next 15 years. They were totally serious. I believed the world would not stop them from building an atomic bomb and they would use it against us. That was a pretty scary thought.

After Hamas and Hezbollah attacked us in 2023, we counterattacked and went on an offensive to disarm them. That attempt and what is happening now in Gaza and Lebanon, could be the subject of a letter or two on their own and I won’t go into the details about that in this letter. Suffice it to say, that we succeeded in degrading their abilities so that they are no longer the immediate existential threat that they were. They have the potential of rebuilding (and they are rebuilding their strength). This is something we have to deal with. But as for now, they can still launch rockets, but we don’t think they can invade us. The real way to destroy them is to end the umbilical cord they have from Iran. Iran supplies them with billions of dollars, with weapons, with training, and with military advisors. Without Iran’s support, the threat from its proxies would dissipate.

We loosened the noose a little bit, but we still had the threat from Iran itself. If nothing was done, they would have nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles, and would rebuild their terrorist proxies. Our goal in the war is to diminish Iran’s nuclear and ballistic program to the point that it will be set back several years. If the Iranian people take the opportunity and rise up against their oppressive regime and replace it with a moderate leadership, that would be icing on the cake. But no one is really counting on that. But to set back Iran’s plans to destroy us by several years is a relief to us. It allays our fears and anxiety. That is why we are ecstatic about how well we are succeeding in dismembering their nuclear and ballistic program and are willing to pay the price to do it.

To help you understand what our lives have become, here is an example. An Israeli has developed an app (called “canishower”) to help Israelis decide when to take a shower. When there are missiles on the way every few hours, and you really don’t want to get caught with shampoo in your hair when the alert goes off and you have to be in your neighborhood shelter within minutes, one of the most important questions Israelis ask themselves is if this is a good time to take a shower. To help answer that question there is the app that uses an algorithm that calculates what time it is, where you live, what time of day Iran usually fires, and generates the odds of a missile coming your way. It gives you odds of whether there will be an alert while you are in the shower. We are laughing at ourselves that such apps are being developed. Call it black humor. But the point is that morale is high and we are adapting to living under these conditions. We just know that we need to accomplish the goals of the war and have to finish the job. We’re willing to live like this for weeks if in the end, the noose around our necks is removed for the next few years.

I need to carefully touch on the internal politics of the war in America, Canada, and Europe. I am a bit hesitant because I really am trying not to get into a debate between political views. But the situation is sad and frightening nonetheless. First my usual bona fides. I am sure that even my bona fides for some of you will get your hackles up. I, in general, do not vote in American elections. I live in Israel and don’t feel I have the right to participate in the American political process. But I do identify as a Democrat. I am a liberal. The only time I voted in an American election, before I immigrated to Israel, I voted for McGovern. So please don’t accuse me of being MAGA, Republican, or a fan of Donald Trump. Or of Bibi for that matter. I am not. Ask my brother. On the other hand, I will not be against a policy just because Trump or Bibi is in favor of it.

To see some voices within the Democratic Party take positions that appear to excuse or minimize Iran’s actions and sympathize with the Ayatollahs over American democracy is shocking, disturbing, and disheartening all at the same time. If a western country murdered 30,000 peaceful protesters, the left would be outraged and would support ousting such a regime. But in the case of Iran, not only do many on the left not recognize how evil and how much of a danger that regime is, but it defends that regime.

It sums up everything that is wrong with the world. Not one Feminist movement condemned Hamas for raping Jewish women. But I guess that makes sense since they are siding with the regime who tortured and murdered a young woman who did not wear her hijab correctly. The world turned upside down. The American government are fascists, not the Iranian regime that sponsors terrorism world wide, which murders its own citizens for protesting, and which denies the right of women to wear what they want and to participate in society.

“Ayatollah Khamenei: Hard Line Cleric Who Made Iran a Regional Power Dead at 86"

Here is what a friend of mine imagined the NY Times obituary headline would have been at the end of WW2:

"Adolf Hitler: Dedicated National Socialist Who Made Germany an International Power Dead at 56"

"Khamenei nurtured a network of militias throughout the Middle East that challenged US and Israeli ambitions throughout the region."

Militias? Not terrorists? They were fighting in self-defense? Not killing innocent people in a holy war to exterminate who wasn't Moslem?

It wasn’t long ago that the understanding that a nuclear Iran was a threat to the WORLD was bipartisan. President Obama understood it and therefore negotiated an agreement with the Iranians to limit their nuclear program. It was not a perfect deal. But it did slow down Iran’s program and prevented Iran from making a bomb as long as the agreement lasted. Iran throughout these negotiations claimed its nuclear program was for peaceful, civilian purposes. Obama agreed to allow Iran to build centrifuges and to enrich uranium up to a certain level. The minute President Trump cancelled the agreement and Iran was no longer bound by it, those centrifuges worked non-stop and they began enriching uranium to 60%. That is a level well beyond medical and civilian needs. It is a level of enrichment needed only to build nuclear weapons. They also developed ballistic missiles that could carry nuclear warheads. The intention of the Iranians to build an atomic bomb is without doubt. Who they will use it against is also not in doubt. Both Obama and Trump understood what a danger to the world an Iran with nuclear weapons would be and both tried, in their own ways, to thwart Iran’s nuclear program. Both parties understood the threat and fought to prevent it. This never used to be a partisan issue.

It is so sad today that some in the Democratic Party and in the Republican Party don’t understand that the threat must be thwarted. They don’t understand that this war isn’t just about Israel’s defense. Iran is a destabilizing factor to the whole Middle East. In my last letter I wrote that they threaten not only Israel, but are developing missiles to attack Europe. Less than a week later, I was proven right, unfortunately. They fired missiles at Cyprus and Turkey. They fired on Azerbaijan for who knows why. They hit oil facilities in Saudi Arabia and in Qatar. Qatar, who had good relations with them and was never a threat to them. They cut off the Bab El Mandeb straits to shipping. About 10% of the world’s oil shipping goes through these straits. They are the danger to the stability of the world. Not America and not Israel.

The isolationist feeling in America is not confined to the democrats. There are also strong isolationist beliefs in the MAGA world. Megyn Kelley and Tucker Carlson are prime examples.

To a certain extent I can understand the sentiment in America. After wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, that did not necessarily go well for America, Americans are not interested in being the world’s policeman and being involved in wars against countries that don’t seem to be a threat to America today. I myself felt that way about the war in Vietnam growing up in the 70s.

I am reading Winston Churchill’s history of WWII. As they say, history repeats itself. The parallels are disturbing. In 1939, after years of European diplomacy trying to appease Hitler and prevent war by ceding countries to him, Hitler invaded Poland and the war began. Hitler was never interested in diplomacy unless it helped him acquire his ideological goals. All of Europe fell quickly, except for England. And then Hitler began his campaign to invade it.

Many people at the time believed England didn’t stand a chance against the Nazis. The Nazis had a larger air force and army then England did. They had conquered all of Europe without much of a problem. Churchill begged Roosevelt to come to England’s rescue. To come to the aid of the last standing democracy in Europe against a sick, murderous, tyrannical foe with a warped ideology. But America was isolationist. Roosevelt did not have the public support to go to war to defend England. As far as Americans were concerned, the Nazis could conquer England. Not America’s problem. Britain was left to fight the Nazis alone. However, on Dec 7, 1941, two years after the Battle of Britain, the war came to America’s doorstep. The Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor. America’s naval fleet was more or less destroyed and its army was unprepared for a war. America was thrust into the war unprepared. Not confronting the threat did not make it go away.

Many of you may think I am exaggerating. I try not to compare modern events with the Holocaust. The Holocaust is a stand-alone event in history. But one cannot ignore the similarities. Isolationist America unwilling to face a growing threat. Ready to sacrifice its allies in order not to make sacrifices itself. Iran’s intention to kill 8 million Jews. In the end, if you don’t stop evil, it will not go away. It grows and one day it will be at your doorstep.

This isn’t a war between “right and left”. It is a war between “right and wrong”. Portraying democracies as the bad guys and the butchers of Tehran as the good guys is truly a world turned upside down. I hope that the west can get over its petty internal politics and see the storm gathering on the horizon that is the common enemy of the western world.

I know those who are reading this have a broad spectrum of opinions and I truly do respect all of you and your political stripes. I apologize if I have offended any of you by stating mine. I, again, am trying to make the case that the need to prevent Iran from being a threat to the security of the region, to Europe, and to the world is beyond internal politics. If my letters offend or upset any of you and you want me to stop sending them to you, please let me know.

Lastly, on a personal note, we are very fortunate to live in an area of the country that seems to literally not be on Iran’s radar screen. Where we live, specifically, has not been the target of many drone or missile attacks. We feel safe. We feel resolve more than fear.

Thanks for posting this letter. It gives you an uderstanding how the Israelis are bearing up under the stress of war. Obviously I don't agree with his policies (If I'd done that I woldn't be on FR, would I?) but as he quite rightly writes, this war is not between Left and Right, but between Right and Wrong (Evil).

But the question that lingers is how come so many persons in leading positions in our Western countries cannot see this? There are of course many reasons, but one very important one is written about here:

The Tehran Trojan Horse: Unmasking the Iranian shadow lobby

Fancy that. How often have we heard "our betters" warning us for "Misinformation" and "Disinformation". Well, I'm sure it is not us but some of them who have been amply rewarded by the butchers of Tehran.

This isn’t a war between “right and left”. It is a war between “right and wrong”.

This is because the person who wrote this does not recognize that left=wrong.

From his other letters he clearly has antipathy for Netanyahu and favors courts rather than elected representatives as being in ultimate power over Israel. In other words, he favors the “Deep State” style bureaucracy over representative government, even if that’s not clear in his own mind. But his instinct for self-preservation and national survival keeps him from any serious TDS.

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